[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 052036
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT WED SEP  8 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

29.7N  85.0W      50  X  X  X 50   TAMPA FL          99  X  X  X 99
31.5N  86.0W      17 17  1  X 35   CEDAR KEY FL      77  X  X  X 77
32.5N  86.0W       3 24  1  X 28   ST MARKS FL       50  X  X  X 50
COCOA BEACH FL    63  X  X  X 63   APALACHICOLA FL   50  X  X  X 50
DAYTONA BEACH FL  37  X  X  X 37   PANAMA CITY FL    43  X  X  X 43
JACKSONVILLE FL   13  1  X  1 15   PENSACOLA FL      11 16  X  X 27
SAVANNAH GA        X  3  4  5 12   MOBILE AL          1 15  1  1 18
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  3  7 10   GULFPORT MS        X  8  2  1 11
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  1  7  8   BURAS LA           X  3  1  1  5
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  6  6   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  2  2  1  5
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  X  4  4   GULF 29N 85W      48  X  X  X 48
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 87W      16  5  X  X 21
NORFOLK VA         X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 89W       X  1  X  1  2
VENICE FL         99  X  X  X 99

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
C FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
D FROM  2PM TUE TO  2PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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