[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 052036
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN SEP 05 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  47.7 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM AST WED SEP  8 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

11.9N  54.0W      50  2  X  X 52   TAPA 171N 618W     X  X  7 10 17
12.8N  57.5W       X 34  1  1 36   TKPK 173N 627W     X  X  3 14 17
13.6N  61.0W       X  2 24  1 27   TNCM 181N 631W     X  X  1 13 14
TNCC 122N 690W     X  X  X  4  4   TISX 177N 648W     X  X  X 17 17
SVMG 110N 640W     X  X  3  5  8   TIST 183N 650W     X  X  X 15 15
TTPP 106N 614W     X  1  6  2  9   TJPS 180N 666W     X  X  X 16 16
TTPT 112N 608W     X  2 11  1 14   MDSD 185N 697W     X  X  X 10 10
TGPY 120N 618W     X  1 15  2 18   MDCB 176N 714W     X  X  X  6  6
TBPB 131N 595W     X 15 15  X 30   MTPP 186N 724W     X  X  X  3  3
TVSV 131N 612W     X  2 22  1 25   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  X  X 15 15
TLPL 138N 610W     X  2 24  1 27   MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  X  4  4
TFFF 146N 610W     X  1 24  2 27   ST CROIX VI        X  X  X 17 17
TDPR 153N 614W     X  X 21  3 24   ST THOMAS VI       X  X  X 15 15
80400 157N 636W    X  X  7 15 22   SAN JUAN PR        X  X  X 15 15
TFFR 163N 615W     X  X 14  6 20   PONCE PR           X  X  X 16 16

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
C FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
D FROM  2PM TUE TO  2PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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