[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KMFL 041542
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-042230-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1141 AM EDT SAT SEP 4 2004

...WIND GUSTS OF 91 MPH IN NORTHEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PERSONS IN PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE...
COLLIER...HENDRY...GLADES AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...INCLUDING METRO PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
COUNTIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST
FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA COUNTIES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 80 MILES EAST OF WEST PALM
BEACH. FRANCES HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEEN WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK AT 5 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FRANCES IS A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SQUALLS WILL BECOME NEARLY CONTINUOUS ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND GUSTS NEAR 100
MPH. ACROSS BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...SQUALLS WILL INCREASE IN FREQUENCY
AND STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FROM HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE LONG IN
DURATION. EVACUATION ORDERS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA COUNTIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE ACTUAL STORM SURGE WILL DEPEND ENTIRELY UPON WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF
FRANCES CROSSES THE COAST. AT PRESENT...FRANCES IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
MAXIMUM STORM TIDE FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING ALONG THE NORTHEAST PALM BEACH COAST AROUND JUPITER INLET. STORM TIDE IS A
COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE FROM THE HURRICANE AND THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS.
THE PRIMARY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE FOR THE JUPITER INLET AREA WILL BE AROUND 2
PM TODAY. IN MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT IF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE ACTUALLY
COMES INLAND FARTHER SOUTH...A HIGHER STORM TIDE WOULD OCCUR.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE LAKE LEVEL ON THURSDAY WAS 13.6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK...THE WATER WOULD BE PUSHED UP AS MUCH AS 6 FEET HIGHER ON THE LAKE
SIDE OF THE DIKE IN GLADES...HENDRY...AND WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THIS
WOULD AFFECT AREAS FROM THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK ALL THE WAY AROUND TO
THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE INCLUDING MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...SOUTH BAY ...
BELLE GLADE...PAHOKEE AND PORT MAYACA. THE MAXIMUM STORM SURGE INSIDE HOOVER
DIKE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 18 TO 20 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL THIS EVENING.
THE HOOVER DIKE PROTECTS INHABITED AREAS TO AT LEAST 30 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL. RITTA...KREAMER AND TORRY ISLANDS WOULD BE FLOODED AT THESE LEVELS
INCLUDING SOME CAMPGROUNDS AND ROADS. IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE EXACT
IMPACT ON THE LAKE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE AND FROM WHAT DIRECTION
FRANCES APPROACHES THE LAKE...AND HOW STRONG IT ACTUALLY IS WHEN IT APPROACHES
THE LAKE.

FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...MAXIMUM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4
FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ALONG THE TEN THOUSAND ISLANDS OF MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY AND THE CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY AREAS OF COLLIER COUNTY
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY. THIS COULD FLOOD PARTS OF STATE ROAD 29 BETWEEN
TAMIAMI TRAIL AND CHOKOLOSKEE. FROM MARCO ISLAND NORTH TO NAPLES AND BONITA
BEACH THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL. HIGH TIDE FOR THE NAPLES AREA WILL BE AROUND 430 AM SUNDAY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
AT 1015 AM...WIND GUSTS AT PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED 60 MPH.
AT 1040 AM A WIND GUST OF 50 MPH WAS REPORTED AT NORTH PERRY AIRPORT IN
PEMBROKE PINES. BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM UNOFFICIAL WIND GUSTS OF 91 MPH WERE
MEASURED AT JUPITER INLET WITH AN 80 MPH GUST AT BOCA RATON. OVER NORTHERN PALM
BEACH COUNTY...WINDS WILL REACH SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE...74 MPH...AROUND MID
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS ARE RANGING
FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL FORCE WINDS
ABOVE 40 MPH WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...PARTICULARLY IN SQUALLS. ACCORDING
TO DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE BEGINNING TO OCCUR
IN HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES. WINDS MAY CAUSE TREES TO UPROOT AND LARGE TREE
LIMBS TO BREAK WHICH COULD CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. THE WINDS MAY ALSO BLOW DOWN
TRAFFIC LIGHTS AND SIGNS...MAKING DRIVING EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING PORTIONS OF THE PALM BEACH ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND WILL
INCREASE TO HURRICANE FORCE THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW
HURRICANE FORCE ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COASTAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND ARE FORECAST
TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY.

ALSO...THE COMBINATION OF DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WITH MODERATE SWELLS COULD
IMPACT PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST MAINLY FROM
RIVIERA BEACH NORTH TO JUPITER INLET PRODUCING SEVERE BEACH EROSION...
PARTICULARLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DANGEROUS SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS. ON THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...ONSHORE WINDS THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THERE.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
AN UNOFFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 2.6 INCHES WAS RECORDED AT JUPITER. DOPPLER
ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER
EASTERN GLADES AND NORTHEAST HENDRY COUNTIES. SO FAR MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED
LESS THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN BUT THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRANCES MEANS THAT RAINFALL
COULD STILL BE VERY HEAVY AND FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA
THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST.HISTORICALLY EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES AND MORE HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN SIMILAR VERY SLOW MOVING HURRICANES.

FORECASTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY IN PALM BEACH COUNTY
COULD REACH UP TO 8 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS CLOSEST TO WHERE FRANCES CROSSES THE COASTLINE. IN GLADES
AND HENDRY COUNTIES...MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FLOOD WATCH
IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN A POSSIBLE
TORNADO WITHIN THE SPIRAL RAIN BANDS AND ADDITIONAL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 6 PM TODAY.

$$

LUSHINE/PFOST

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