[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KMLB 041506
HLSMLB
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
042000-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 4 2004

...STRONG OUTER RAINBANDS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING
RAINS SPREADING OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...FRANCES GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND HEADING TOWARD EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST...

...HURRICANE WARNING FROM SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FLORIDA CITY
WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING FOR ALL INTERIOR COUNTIES OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN
BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...
ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN
AND OKEECHOBEE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO
FLORIDA CITY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL COUNTIES...AND ALSO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE
...INLAND VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MELBOURNE AND 95 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FORT PIERCE.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS
MAKES FRANCES A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS FRANCES BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AS HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
MOVE ONSHORE IN OUTER RAINBANDS. POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREES AND
LIMBS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN COASTAL BREVARD COUNTY WITH
WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 55 TO 67 MPH IN BREVARD COUNTY AND 59 MPH
AT VERO BEACH AND 87 MPH AT JUPITER INLET THIS MORNING. RESIDENTS OF
BREVARD...EASTERN OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES SHOULD STAY IN SHELTER THROUGH TONIGHT AS
CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE. RAINBANDS WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...SEMINOLE...ORANGE AND SOUTHERN VOLUSIA
COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LAKE COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THIS IS YOUR LAST CHANCE TO SEEK APPROPRIATE SHELTER IF YOU HAVE NOT
ALREADY DONE SO. THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION WIND AND RAIN EVENT. DO
NOT GET CAUGHT TRYING TO DO THINGS OUTDOORS IN BETWEEN RAINBANDS...
STAY PUT IN SHELTER. IT IS NOW TIME TO CONCENTRATE ON KEEPING
YOURSELF SAFE DURING THE STORM. AS FRANCES MAKES LANDFALL THIS
EVENING PEOPLE IN AND CLOSE TO THE CORE OF MAXIMUM WINDS SHOULD TAKE
SHELTER IN A SMALL ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR SUCH AS A CLOSET OR
BATHROOM. PUT AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE HURRICANE WINDS AS
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. KEEP A BATTERY OPERATED NOAA
WEATHER RADIO WITH YOU OR AM FM RADIO TO RECEIVE UPDATES AND
WARNINGS. TORNADO WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED IF A HIGH THREAT OF
TORNADOES OR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WITH HURRICANE RAINBANDS ARE FORECAST
USING DOPPLER RADAR.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WITH WINDS OF 105 MPH...FRANCES IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.
IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME REORGANIZATION AND STRENGTHENING WILL TAKE
PLACE TODAY AS FRANCES MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE GULF STREAM AND FRANCES
COULD STILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY THREE STORM WITH WINDS NEAR
110 MPH...MAKING FRANCES A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF PUTTING ALL OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR OR TO THE RIGHT OF THE STORM CENTER WHICH WILL CONTAIN
THE HIGHEST WINDS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
STORM SURGE MODELS USING THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST INDICATE
THAT FRANCES WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL DURING THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BETWEEN JUPITER INLET AND CAPE
CANAVERAL. THIS WOULD PRODUCE MAXIMUM STORM TIDES OF SEVEN OR
EIGHT FEET NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL...MOST LIKELY BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. NORTH OF
CAPE CANAVERAL...A SURGE OF 3 TO 4 FEET IS LIKELY. BATTERING WAVES OF
VERY LONG DURATION WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN ALONG THE BEACHES.
SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVE DAMAGE IS LIKELY IN THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
TWO TO THREE INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED FROM THE INITIAL OUTER RAINBANDS OVER PORTIONS OF
BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN
TOTALS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS FRANCES SLOWLY CROSSES THE
PENINSULA. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTER TRACK AND ABOUT
80 MILES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER. SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINFALL
IN SOLID RAINBANDS IS APPROACHING BREVARD...MARTIN...SAINT
LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES AND WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLACES ALREADY SATURATED FROM
RECENT HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO SERIOUS FLOODING.
RESIDENTS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
FLOODING WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR FLOODING NEAR GENEVA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER OUTER
RAINBANDS AND THE THREAT WILL INCREASE AS THE INNER RAINBANDS OF
FRANCES MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON
OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE
MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB

$$

HAGEMEYER

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