[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KMLB 031546
HLSMLB
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
032145-

HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1150 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF FRANCES OFFSHORE MARTIN COUNTY...
...HURRICANE FRANCES UNDERGOING CHANGES BUT STILL A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN
BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...
ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN
AND OKEECHOBEE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO
FLORIDA CITY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COASTAL COUNTIES...AND ALSO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE
...INLAND VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND MAY
BE EXTENDED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS NEAR LATITUDE
25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF VERO BEACH. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
HURRICANE FRANCES HAS AFFORDED CENTRAL FLORIDIANS A LITTLE MORE TIME
TO PREPARE DUE TO THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. IT APPEARS
THAT WEATHER WILL BE GOOD DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. THIS EXTRA TIME SHOULD BE USED WISELY FOR
THOSE WHO REMAIN IN THE AREA TO COMPLETE THEIR ACTION PLANS. ALTHOUGH
LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...FRANCES IS STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE AND
HEADING FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA...MAKING THIS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
DO NOT LET THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND GOOD WEATHER TODAY GIVE YOU A FALSE
IMPRESSION THAT THE THREAT FROM FRANCES IS LESSENING. FRANCES IS
MOVING SLOWLY AND COULD MOVE ALONG THE COAST OR MAKE A MOVE TOWARD
THE COAST ON SHORT NOTICE AND INCREASE RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS ALL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AREA MUST STAY VIGILANT.

...WIND IMPACTS...
THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS MUCH GREATER FOR PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE
CHARLEY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH FRANCES ARE NEAR 115 MPH.
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN BEFORE...FRANCES IS STILL A MAJOR
HURRICANE...WITH SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY POSSIBLE.

IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK OF FRANCES. FRANCES IS A VERY LARGE
HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK ITSELF. ALL RESIDENTS
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT EVEN SOME INLAND LOCATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WINDS NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WITH WINDS
OF THIS STRENGTH...LARGE TREES ARE BLOWN DOWN WITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE
TO ROOFING MATERIALS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS. WELL BUILT HOMES WITHOUT
HURRICANE SHUTTERS OR WINDOW COVERINGS CAN SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE.
SMALL STRUCTURES MAY EXPERIENCE COMPLETE ROOF FAILURES...WITH SOME
MOBILE HOMES EXPERIENCING COMPLETE DESTRUCTION.

RAIN BANDS AND SQUALLS WILL INCREASE IN BOTH FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE MARTIN...SAINT
LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
HIGH. 6 TO 9 FEET OF SURGE WILL BE COMMON...WITH HIGHEST SURGE LEVELS
OF 9 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS....MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE
RIGHT OF WHERE THE EYE OF FRANCES MOVES ONSHORE. BATTERING WAVES WILL
BE OF GREAT CONCERN ALONG THE BEACHES GIVEN THE HIGH WINDS SPEEDS AND
DURATION...WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVE DAMAGE ALSO LIKELY IN THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
ONE OF THE MORE DANGEROUS ASPECTS OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE
FLOODING. THE SLOWER FRANCES MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA...THE GREATER
THE FLOOD THREAT. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND MAY BE EXTENDED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS
FRANCES CROSSES THE STATE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTER TRACK. PLACES ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS WILL
BE MOST VULNERABLE TO SERIOUS FLOODING. RESIDENTS ALONG THE SAINT
JOHNS RIVER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR NEAR RECORD FLOODING IF EXCESSIVE
RAIN DEVELOPS.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
THE MARINE THREAT TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS
EXTREME. TROPICAL STORM WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO HURRICANE
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THE TORNADO THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS NOT AS GREAT AS WITH
HURRICANE CHARLEY. TORNADOES ARE LESS LIKELY WITH LANDFALLING
ATLANTIC HURRICANES IN FLORIDA BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. TORNADOES MAY BE THE FIRST THREAT TO ARRIVE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS...ESPECIALLY TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER TRACK AND IN PROXIMITY OF THE COAST. OF
COURSE...TORNADOES WITHIN THE INNER RAINBANDS AND EYEWALL WILL LIKELY
OCCUR.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM
OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE
MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB

$$

HAGEMEYER

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