[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT71 KNHC 022029
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  74.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT SUN SEP  5 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

26.0N  77.8W      49  X  X  X 49   WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  2  2
27.0N  79.5W      17 12  X  1 30   KEY WEST FL        X  3  1  3  7
27.7N  80.5W       2 19  2  1 24   MARCO ISLAND FL    X 10  3  2 15
MYSM 241N 745W    99  X  X  X 99   FT MYERS FL        X 11  3  3 17
MYEG 235N 758W    51  X  X  X 51   VENICE FL          X  8  5  4 17
MYAK 241N 776W    32  X  X  X 32   TAMPA FL           X  8  6  4 18
MYNN 251N 775W    51  X  X  X 51   CEDAR KEY FL       X  2  9  6 17
MYGF 266N 787W    34  2  X  X 36   ST MARKS FL        X  X  4 11 15
MARATHON FL        1  5  1  2  9   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  3 11 14
MIAMI FL           8 11  X  1 20   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  2 11 13
W PALM BEACH FL    9 15  1  1 26   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  9  9
FT PIERCE FL       3 20  1  1 25   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  7  7
COCOA BEACH FL     1 18  2  2 23   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  5  5
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X 10  6  4 20   BURAS LA           X  X  X  4  4
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  1  8  8 17   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  3  3
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  2 10 12   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  5  9 14
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  1  7  8   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  1  9 10
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  4  4   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  4  4

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM FRI TO  2AM SAT
C FROM  2AM SAT TO  2PM SAT
D FROM  2PM SAT TO  2PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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