[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KMFL 020257
HLSMFL
AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>068-071>074-021000-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2004

...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...
...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING INLAND
COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA...

WESTERN PALM BEACH...WESTERN BROWARD...WESTERN MIAMI DADE...GLADES...
AND HENDRY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PERSONS IN HENDRY...GLADES...PALM
BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 585 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF PALM BEACH. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST
NEAR 14 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AND LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN AT LEAST 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA ON THURSDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS IN PALM BEACH COUNTY HAVE ORDERED
MANDATORY EVACUATION OF PERSONS IN THE CATEGORY 4 EVACUATION ZONE
BEGINNING 2 PM THURSDAY. GLADES COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS
ANTICIPATE A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF PEOPLE LIVING IN MOBILE HOMES IN
NORTHEAST GLADES COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BROWARD COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT ANTICIPATES A MANDATORY EVACUATION THURSDAY FOR PERSONS
LIVING IN PLAN A EVACUATION ZONE WHICH INCLUDES THE BARRIER ISLANDS
AND ALL MOBILE HOMES. HENDRY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS
ANTICIPATE CLOSING SCHOOLS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WILL LOCK DOWN
THE FORT DENAUD BRIDGE ONCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REACH THE
AREA. ADDITIONALLY...ALL SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED FOR PALM BEACH...
BROWARD...AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT PRESENT...THE CENTER OF FRANCES IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE COAST
NORTH OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. THEREFORE...ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK...THE CIRCULATION OF FRANCES WOULD BE BLOWING FROM
THE LAND OUT TO THE SEA ACROSS PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES. THEREFORE...STORM SURGE WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE
SOUTHEAST METRO COUNTIES. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
ARE REMINDED THAT A DIRECT IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY AND THEREFORE THE SURGE IMPACT IN THAT CASE WOULD
INCREASE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...
NORTHEAST WINDS WOULD BLOW THE WATER IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE FIRST
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND LATER TOWARD THE SOUTH TOWARD THE HOOVER
DIKE IN GLADES...HENDRY...AND WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THE LAKE
LEVEL ON WEDNESDAY WAS 13.6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. THE WATER
WOULD BE PUSHED UP AS MUCH AS 6 TO 8 FEET HIGHER ON THE LAKE SIDE OF
THE DIKE IN GLADES...HENDRY...AND WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES FROM
THE MOUTH OF FISHEATING CREEK ALL THE WAY AROUND TO BELLE GLADE
INCLUDING MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...LAKE HARBOR AND SOUTH BAY. THE
MAXIMUM STORM TIDE INSIDE HOOVER DIKE WOULD THEREFORE BE ABOUT 21
FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LAKE. THE HOOVER
DIKE PROTECTS INHABITED AREAS TO AT LEAST 30 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL. RITTA...KREAMER AND TORRY ISLANDS WOULD BE FLOODED AT THESE
LEVELS INCLUDING SOME CAMPGROUNDS AND ROADS. THE ULTIMATE IMPACT
WOULD DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY AND EXACT TRACK FRANCES ENDS UP TAKING
AND MORE DETAILED INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED AS TO THE LOCAL SURGE
IMPACT AS FRANCES APPROACHES THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM EAST TO
WEST EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARRIVING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLY ARRIVING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF PALM BEACH COUNTY LATE
FRIDAY. THEREFORE...AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES AND THE EVERGLADES REGIONS OF WESTERN PALM
BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AGAIN...THIS IS BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...IT IS
STILL POSSIBLE FOR FRANCES TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH
FLORIDA IN WHICH CASE THE LOCAL WIND IMPACT WOULD INCREASE.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SEAS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED NOT
TO VENTURE FAR FROM PORT. SEA CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE
FRIDAY AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE PALM BEACH
COUNTY COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR FRANCES TO MAKE LANDFALL
SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA IN WHICH CASE THE LOCAL MARINE IMPACT
WOULD INCREASE FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.

...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PALM BEACH COUNTY ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES. IN
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 5 TO 7 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATER ON THURSDAY.

...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS..
THERE IS A THREAT OF TORNADOES IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF FRANCES.
THESE MAY BEGIN AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED HURRICANE FRANCES LOCAL STATEMENT WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM THURSDAY.

$$

PS

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