[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301032
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT 30 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 75 NM E OF BARBADOS ALONG 58W S OF
20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND FRENCH BUOY 41100
E OF DOMINICA BOTH INDICATE THAT A WEAK 1011 MB LOW HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE ABOUT 250 NM NE OF GUADELOUPE NEAR
18N58W. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DECELERATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS STALLED NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN FOCUSED JUST E OF THE
LOW...AND SE OF THE FRONT...WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION NOW FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 51W-55W.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 80W S OF 19N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
CYCLONIC GYRE WHICH EXTENDS NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BUT
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A SHARP WIND SHIFT LOCATED ALONG 80W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG AND TO THE
E OF THE AXIS FROM PANAMA TO 17N BETWEEN 74W-80W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 14N10W 7N22W 9N35W 9N44W 11N50W...THEN ALONG
7N60W 10N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM 1N-5N E OF 10W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
3N-11N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 27W-35W AND 40W-48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 28W-37W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 48W-56W. ISOLATED MODERATE EXTENDING FROM
TRINIDAD SWD ALONG THE VENEZUELA/GUYANA BORDER. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE OVER N COLOMBIA AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE N COAST OF
PANAMA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AND THE NICE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
CONTINUES. WITH THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER RIDGES MOVING
LITTLE...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE HAS RETAINED ITS
STRANGLEHOLD OVER THE AREA PRODUCING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
22N94W AND THE SFC RIDGE POKES FROM A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC
ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE N GULF. THE RETURN FLOW OFF THE TEXAS
COAST HAS BEGUN TO PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW
OVER CNTRL TEXAS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE MON
AND TUES.

CARIBBEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS CHANGING SLOWLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD FROM SOUTH AMERICA NWD INTO THE
W CARIBBEAN. A WEAKENING TROF IS STILL DRAPED FROM THE ATLC
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE NE CARIBBEAN BUT THE
PRIMARY AXIS IS NOW SHIFTING E INTO THE ATLC AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS. MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED N WITH
THE RIDGE AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE E/CNTRL
CARIBBEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS AREA...SPECIFICALLY S OF JAMAICA NEAR A TROPICAL
WAVE...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ALSO STRETCH WITHIN 60
NM OF A LINE FROM CURACAO TO MARTINIQUE. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SWWD TO 17N70W AND DOPPLER RADAR
FROM SAN JUAN DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING FROM NE TO SW
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PUSH DRIER AIR OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...SPREADING SWD TO A LINE FROM SE CUBA TO N NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC WEST OF 45W...
A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW COVERS THE ENTIRE W ATLC WATERS
REACHING AS FAR S AS ABOUT 17N...AND DRIER AIR IS SPREADING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEWD TO A LINE ALONG 17N58W 32N47W. A BROAD
SWATH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS TO THE E OF THIS LINE
STRETCHING FROM THE CNTRL LESSER ANTILLES NEWD ACROSS THE
E/CNTRL ATLC. THE TROF IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
THE ATLC...EXTENDING ALONG 32N45W 23N54W THEN AS A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 17N70W. A WEAK 1013 MB SPOT
LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 30N48W WITH A POST-FRONTAL
TROF EXTENDING SW TO 27N57W. THE FRONT IS INTERACTING WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN
51W-55W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDS ELSEWHERE UP TO 400 NM SE OF THE FRONT N
OF 20N.

ATLANTIC EAST OF 45W...
AN EXPANSIVE SFC RIDGE CONTROLS MUCH OF THE E/CNTRL ATLC WITH A
1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N34W. BROAD-SCALE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS ALSO IN CONTROL...CENTERED ALONG 30W...BUT SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE AND MOVING VERY
LITTLE. A WEAKENING UPPER TROF IS LOCATED ALONG 15N43W 26N41W
AND A WEAK UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N32W BUT NEITHER IS
REALLY PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. PATCHY MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE PRETTY MUCH EVAPORATING TO THE E AND SE OF THE TROF.
FARTHER E...A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROF EXTENDS S OF SW SPAIN INTO
MOROCCO AND N MAURITANIA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING
S FROM 32N2W IN W ALGERIA TO 28N12W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
31N21W. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS AND S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
WITH A SECOND STRATOCUMULUS DECK BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE
MOROCCAN COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 13.5N20W AND
PRECEDED BY DRY AIR UP TO 600 NM TO ITS N AND W.

$$
BERG



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