[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT 30 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 85 NM E OF BARBADOS...AND 250 NM NE
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...ALONG 58W S OF 19N MOVING W
10-15 KT. THE WAVE HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT AND ITS NORTHERN EDGE
IS RUNNING INTO A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO THE N. A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 18N58W AND
HAS FOCUSED NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-19.5N
BETWEEN 54W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W/80W S OF
19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE HAS A VERY WEAK SIGNATURE WITH
A SLIGHT CYCLONIC CURVATURE NOTED SW OF JAMAICA. OCCASIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POPPING NEAR THE AXIS FROM 14N-17N.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N10W 6N20W 7N35W 10N55W 10N75W 8N83W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA AND
SIERRA LEONE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 12W-15W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE 150 NM N AND 200 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-31W.
SCATTERED MODERATE 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 31W-47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE OVER GUYANA AND E VENEZUELA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 72W-75W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AND THE NICE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
CONTINUES. WITH THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER RIDGES MOVING
LITTLE...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE HAS RETAINED ITS
STRANGLEHOLD OVER THE AREA BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
23N92W AND THE SFC RIDGE POKES FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA
INTO THE N GULF. THE RETURN FLOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST HAS BEGUN
TO PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW OVER CNTRL TEXAS
AND FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE MON AND TUES.

CARIBBEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS CHANGING SLOWLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD FROM SOUTH AMERICA NWD INTO THE
W CARIBBEAN. A WEAKENING TROF IS STILL DRAPED FROM THE ATLC
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 15N71W BUT ALL IN ALL THE
RIDGE IS BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE EXTENDING FROM 10N73W TO
18N79W. MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED N WITH
THE RIDGE AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE E/CNTRL
CARIBBEAN. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
AREA SPECIFICALLY OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND JUST S OF HAITI.
ELSEWHERE...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO PUSH DRIER AIR OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...SPREADING
FROM CUBA TO HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC WEST OF 45W...
A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW COVERS THE ENTIRE W ATLC WATERS
REACHING AS FAR S AS ABOUT 17N...AND DRIER AIR SPREADING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEWD TO ABOUT 55W. A BROAD SWATH OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS TO THE E OF THE TROF STRETCHING FROM THE
CNTRL LESSER ANTILLES NEWD TO THE E OF A LINE 16N61W 32N49W. THE
TROF IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ATLC WHICH
EXTENDS ALONG 32N46W 24N54W 20N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN
47W-57W AND 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N.

ATLANTIC EAST OF 45W...
AN EXPANSIVE SFC RIDGE CONTROLS MUCH OF THE E/CNTRL ATLC WITH A
1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N34W. BROAD-SCALE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS ALSO IN CONTROL...CENTERED ALONG 30W...BUT SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE AND MOVING VERY
LITTLE. A WEAKENING UPPER TROF IS LOCATED ALONG 16N43W 24N43W
AND A WEAK UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N32W BUT NEITHER IS
REALLY PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. PATCHY MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE TROF FROM
16N-22N BETWEEN 35W-40W. FARTHER E...A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROF
EXTENDS S OF PORTUGAL INTO MOROCCO AND N MAURITANIA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING S FROM N MOROCCO THEN NW OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING OFF THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 13N18W AND PRECEDED BY
DRY AIR UP TO 600 NM TO ITS N AND W.

$$
BERG


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