[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI 29 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 325 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 55W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED IN SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY NEAR 15.5N55.5W
BUT MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE AREA IS MOSTLY LIMITING
DEEP CONVECTION. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 52W-55W CONCENTRATED AT THE LATITUDE OF ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA ALONG 76W/77W S OF 19N MOVING
W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES AN EASTERLY WIND SURGE WHICH HAS
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE E/CNTRL CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS HAVE PRODUCED AN
EXPANDING AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM
12.5N-17.5N BETWEEN 73W-79W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 14N10W 10N20W 8N32W 9N42W 8N49W 10N60W 7N71W
9N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 23W-26W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 36W-41W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS 75 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 58W-61W TO
THE E OF TOBAGO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE OVER W/CNTRL
VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 75W-84W INCLUDING OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER FLORIDA AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. THE
SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CAROLINAS THEN
BROADENS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 24N94W WITH A RIDGE BUILDING NWD
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS IN CONTROL AND LIMITING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BUT
MORE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE W ATLC IS ADVECTING
PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS TOWARDS THE FLORIDA COAST FROM THE NE.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH THE SAME UNTIL LATE MON OR
TUES WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WHICH HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FLATTENED OUT A BIT
AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE SWWD TO 13N80W INLAND OVER
N NICARAGUA. A WEAK TROF PROTRUDES N OF THIS AXIS TOWARDS
JAMAICA AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
76W/77W. OTHERWISE...A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN EWD TO PUERTO RICO WITH ONLY A FEW
PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS STRAGGLING ACROSS CUBA TOWARDS THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS SET UP ALONG THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA WHICH HAS ALLOWED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NWD OVER THE S AND E CARIBBEAN. A STATIONARY
FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN WATERS TO 16N69W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE S FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 63W-67W.

ATLANTIC WEST OF 50W...
A WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDS NE OF PUERTO RICO INTO
THE CNTRL ATLC BUT IS NOW BEING OVERTAKEN BY A STRONGER
MID-LATITUDE TROF WHICH IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS
ALONG 60W/61W. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM A GALE CENTER N OF
THE AREA AND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 32N50W 25N55W TO THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS
STRETCHING W TO THE U.S. COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTENDS UP TO 175 NM E OF THE FRONT FROM
21N-27N...AND 300 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALSO EXTEND 250 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 21N NEAR THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THESE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SWATH OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE NRN LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO 30N47W...ALIGNED ALONG A 70-80 KT SWLY JET ON THE E
SIDE OF THE TROF.

ATLANTIC EAST OF 50W...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SPANS ACROSS MUCH OF THE E/CNTRL
ATLC CENTERED ALONG 35W. A 1018 MB SFC HIGH IS CENTERED JUST TO
THE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 25N35W WITH A SFC RIDGE
ALONG 24N46W 25N21W INTO N MOROCCO. DESPITE THE BROAD-SCALE
RIDGE...HOWEVER...TWO DISTINCT CUT-OFF LOWS ARE TRAPPED IN THE
WEAK FLOW AND ARE CENTERED NEAR 17.5N42W AND 23N32W. THE
WESTERNMOST LOW IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM
W AND S OF THE CENTER AS WELL AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS UP TO
250 NM TO THE E AND SE. THE EASTERN LOW IS DRY AND CAUSING NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A RAGGED MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED ABOUT
400 NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH THE DEEPEST EASTERLY
FLOW RESTRICTED TO S OF 10N. NLY CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW E OF 40W
IS PRODUCING SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE ITCZ...BUT
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING NEAR
THE AXIS. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX IS CENTERED
NEAR FRANCE AND THE BRITISH ISLES WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SWD
ACROSS MOROCCO TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND MAURITANIA.

$$
BERG



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