[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU 28 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 750 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 48W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT A
WELL-DEFINED AND SHARP ROTATION IS STILL OBSERVED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 47W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS JUST PASSED LAKE MARACAIBO TO THE GUAJIRA
PENINSULA ALONG 72W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS
BECOMING A LITTLE MORE OBVIOUS NOW THAT IT IS MOVING AWAY FROM
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...AND A SLIGHT
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED JUST N OF THE NE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE
FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 73W-76W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION EXTENDS UP TO 225 NM INLAND OF THE NW VENEZUELA AND
NE COLOMBIA COAST.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N10W 9N17W 6N43W 5N54W 8N80W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 19W-24W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 24W-32W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 33W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
OVER W/CNTRL VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 76W-86W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS
STRONG SFC RIDGING REMAINS PLANTED FROM THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SWD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF WATERS. A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 24N92W
WITH SUBSIDENCE COVERING MOST OF THE AREA SAVE THE IMMEDIATE
MEXICO/TEXAS COAST WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS BEING DRAGGED FROM
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS NEWD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK
SFC TROF IS MOVING W ACROSS THE AREA JUST N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BUT IS ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLOUDS TO THE NW OF
MERIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY ACROSS
THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SWWD TO 12N80W.
THE TROF SEPARATES MOSTLY DRY AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE W/CNTRL CARIBBEAN FROM A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN NEWD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. GIVEN THE LACK OF MID/UPPER
MOISTURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...ONLY PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS IS
PUSHING FROM CUBA AND JAMAICA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FARTHER
E...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WATERS TO THE E OF
THE UPPER TROF FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 62W-69W.

ATLANTIC WEST OF 50W...
A COMPLEX LOW SYSTEM IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WHICH IS PRODUCING BROAD N/NW FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE W
ATLC WATERS. PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING S WITHIN
THIS FLOW PRIMARILY TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS BUT THE CLOUD COVER
IS NOT AS CONCENTRATED AS LAST NIGHT. A SHARPENING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF REMAINS CAMPED OUT OVER THE AREA EXTENDING NE OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 28N60W 32N53W AND THE BROAD NWLY FLOW
BEHIND THE TROF HAS SPREAD A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS
THE AREA...THE LEADING EDGE ALIGNED ALONG 32N55W 27N60W 23N66W.
FARTHER E...A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LINE HAS SET UP NE OF THE
NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 18N62W 30N46W WHERE THE EASTERLY
TRADES ARE INTERSECTING THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROF.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE 22N54W 28N46W.

ATLANTIC EAST OF 50W...
MOST OF THE E/CNTRL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY STRONG DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING...WITH THE SFC RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG 20N55W 26N15W AND A
1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 265N37W. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALIGNED IN A SIMILAR FASHION...ALONG 14N57W 23N44W 24N34W. SWIFT
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE POSITIONED IN A BAND TO THE N OF THE
RIDGE SPREADING FROM W TO E WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
29N-32N BETWEEN 27W-37W. A COLD FRONT ORIGINATING FROM A
MONSTROUS MID-LATITUDE LOW NEAR IRELAND EXTENDS SWD PAST THE
STRAIT OF GIBRALTAR TO 33N10W 31N16W 32N26W AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SINK SLOWLY S TOWARDS THE CANARY ISLANDS. FARTHER S IN THE
TROPICS...A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE CNTRL ATLC HAS BECOME
ELONGATED NEAR 15N42W BUT CONTINUES TO TUMBLE TO THE W.
SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED AROUND THE LOW FROM
14N-17N BETWEEN 37W-43W. A NARROW TROF/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS NE OF
THE LOW A SERIES OF SECONDARY LOWS NEAR 23N32W AND 21N14W OVER W
MAURITANIA. ELSEWHERE...STRONG RIDGING IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH A SEQUENCE OF STRONG TSTM CLUSTERS
PARADING FROM E TO W ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
BERG











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