[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE 26 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE INTRODUCED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 41W S OF
15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOWER LEVEL
CYCLONIC SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT IS NOT PRODUCING
MUCH DEEP CONVECTION.  THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN JUST W OF TRINIDAD ALONG 64W
S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS LARGER
SCALE PATTERN IS BEGINNING THE MASK THE APPEARANCE OF THE WAVE
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 60W-65W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 5N30W 11N40W 6N45W 9N55W
9N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 32W-35W
AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 40W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
GLFMEX EXTENDING NWD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM A
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL GLFMEX NEAR 24N90W.  ALL UPSTREAM
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAPPING SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION.  THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT
2 DAYS MAINTAINING A DRY/TRANQUIL PATTERN.

CARIBBEAN...
LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS SWD
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO COSTA
RICA/PANAMA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY NLY FLOW W OF THE TROUGH
AXIS COVERS MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
LIMITING WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION.  IN FACT...THE ONLY WEATHER
OF NOTE IS A NARROW LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE NE TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA.  ELSEWHERE...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MOIST SLY FLOW E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS IS FAVORING DEEPER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS E OF TROUGH AXIS.
THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS KEEPING THE NW CARIBBEAN UNDER
DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND THE E CARIBBEAN UNDER A
WET/UNSETTLED PATTERN.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
LARGE AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 32N60W SW OVER THE S BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. AT THE SURFACE...COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRES COMPRISED OF
MULTIPLE CENTERS IS LOCATED NE OF THE BERMUDA.  THE NEARLY
STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO USHER IN
REINFORCING SHOTS OF DRY CONTINENTAL AIR. OTHER THAN A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW...N OF 25N
BETWEEN 55W-65W...THE ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE W OF 55W ARE BROKEN
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS.   OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF A
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 31N37W 21N55W.  SUPPORTING MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE BASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT ALLOWING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST.  OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...DYNAMICS/MOISTURE RIDE UP AND OVER A
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC CREATING DRY/TRANQUIL WEATHER
E OF 30W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
WELL DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 15N35W IS MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15 KT. CONFLUENT FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE W OF THE UPPER LOW COVERS THE AREA TO 55W WHILE
DIVERGENT FLOW AND INDUCED RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE EAST OVER THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
RHOME




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