[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE 26 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN JUST W OF TRINIDAD ALONG
63W/64W S OF 14N MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. THE SHEAR HAS RELAXED
OVER THE WAVE IN THE PAST 6 HOURS ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS BENEATH
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 61W-64W
INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF TRINIDAD.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N10W 8N20W 9N36W 7N45W 7N55W
10N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE 6N45W-9N53W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
23N90W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N83W IN THE CARIBBEAN
NW THROUGH THE HIGH THEN N OVER THE E UNITED STATES BEYOND
32N90W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS ALL OF THE GULF EXCEPT S OF 23N
W OF 94W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE LIMITING SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE W
CONTINUES TO BRING PACIFIC MOISTURE N ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS TO
OVER THE E UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD S OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO N OF 20N FROM
74W-93W. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM
30N95W SW TO 27N100W. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS INLAND OVER S
MEXICO NEAR 18N96W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SW GULF/BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 23N FROM 94W-100W. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
IS N OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N93.5W.

W ATLANTIC AND REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN N
OF 15N. THE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW 250 NM E OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N60W SW ALONG 24N68W TO 16N74W. CYCLONIC FLOW S
OF 25N IS FROM 55W-81W AND BROADENS SIGNIFICANTLY NORTHWARD NEAR
30N TO FROM 40W-80W. AT THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX SYSTEM IS N OF
THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION ON THE FAR E
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR 32N36W TO 29N41W WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 22N52W TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 14N61W. A SECOND SURGE/SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 999 MB LOW OVER ESE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N61W W ALONG 29N70W TO
29N75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SURROUNDING THE MID/UPPER LOW N OF 26N FROM 58W-68W. OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE 25N46W TO 32N34W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM 25N46W TO 20N55W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
20N49W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N79W E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W THEN NE THROUGH THE UPPER HIGH TO 30N30W
THEN ALONG 30N TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW HAS
NARROWED SOMEWHAT TO WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS IN THE
CARIBBEAN...TO WITHIN 300 NM OF THE AXIS IN THE ATLC W OF
40W...TO WITHIN 350 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT FROM ABOVE IS THE DELINEATION OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLC AND THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. MID/UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N20W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING N TO 21N20W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA S
OF 21N E OF 28W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
SANDWICH BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
22N27W SW THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 10N38W TO A BASE NEAR 5N40W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM
10N42W 20N36W AROUND THE UPPER HIGH IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG
27N23W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 27N14W. THIS IS PREVENTING ANY
SHOWERS/CONVECTION OVER THE E ATLC EXCEPT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE



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