[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE 26 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN JUST W OF TRINIDAD ALONG 62W S
OF 15N DRIFTING WESTWARD. WAVE IS BENEATH UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS SHEARING THE WAVE AND PREVENTING ANY
DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N28W 9N36W 7N43W 12N62W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 10W-24W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE W AFRICAN
COAST AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 38W-55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 24W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
25N90W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N82W IN THE CARIBBEAN
NW THROUGH THE HIGH THEN N OVER THE E UNITED STATES BEYOND
32N91W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS ALL OF THE GULF EXCEPT S OF 22N
W OF 93W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE LIMITING SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE W CONTINUES TO
BRING PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS N MEXICO AND TEXAS TO OVER THE E
UNITED STATES AND THE EXTREME N GULF COAST BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY S OF 33N. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING S OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 20N FROM 75W-94W.
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N96W WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SW GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N FROM
92W-100W. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 20N92W.

W ATLANTIC AND REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN N
OF 17N. THE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW 200 NM SE OF
BERMUDA NEAR 30N62W SW TO 17N71W. CYCLONIC FLOW S OF 26N IS FROM
57W-80W AND BROADENS SIGNIFICANTLY NORTHWARD NEAR 30N IT IS FROM
34W-80W. AT THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX SYSTEM IS N OF THE REGION
WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION ON THE FAR E SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH NEAR 32N38W TO 30N41W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 23N50W THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE
E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N67W. A SECOND SURGE/SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 1000 MB LOW OVER BERMUDA SW TO 27N73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM
28N61W 29N68W TO JUST N OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N65W. THIS BAND OF
ACTIVITY IS ENCIRCLING THE MID/UPPER LOW. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM BEYOND 32N33W ALONG 23N50W TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ABOUT 750 NM ENE OF GUADELOUPE
NEAR 20N50W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
10N68W ENE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
THROUGH THE UPPER HIGH THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N28W. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS WITHIN 250/300 NM OF THE AXIS. THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
FROM ABOVE IS THE DELINEATION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND
THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER
THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N24W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO
20N19W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 28W TO
INLAND OVER AFRICA. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SANDWICH BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N24W SW THROUGH
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 14N34W TO A BASE NEAR 10N43W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE WITHIN 225/250 NM OF LINE FROM 10N42W
23N33W AROUND THE UPPER HIGH IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 27N23W
TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 27N14W. THIS IS PREVENTING ANY
SHOWERS/CONVECTION OVER THE E ATLC EXCEPT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE


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