[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON 25 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE NE OF BERMUDA IS NO LONGER
CONSIDERED AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
AND IS NOW DROPPED FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURE(S) SECTION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR TRINIDAD S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT.  THE WAVE
HAS BEEN RATHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY BUT RECENTLY THE RAINS HAVE
BEEN DISSIPATING.  ISOLATED MODERATE S OF 14N BETWEEN 58W-64W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N14W 7N35W 11N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
5N-12N BETWEEN 21W-25W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 100 NM OF
6N28W AND 10N37W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 7N45W
8.5N53W 13N58W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN THE DEEP SOUTH WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
AND MUCH WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  A SMALL POCKET OF
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF
FLORIDA N OF 28N BETWEEN 83W-87W.  OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES WITH THE CENTER OVER SW GEORGIA.
ALOFT... NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 24N90W WITH
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE GULF S OF 28N.  LITTLE
CHANGE IS SEEN IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WEATHER IS QUIETING DOWN HERE WITH THE SE FLANK OF THE
STRONG MID/UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF BRINGING DOWN VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT.  ENVIRONMENT REMAINS A BIT MORE MOIST OVER THE CARIBBEAN
S OF 15N BUT SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED EXCEPT NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE FAR SE PART.  MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS IN FROM THE ATLC
NEAR 15N61W INTO NE NICARAGUA.  ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY
FOR NORTHERN S AMERICA INTO THE ABC ISLANDS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
PROGRESSES W.  THE TRADES ARE RATHER WEAK WITH A TROUGH FROM
14N64W THRU THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CAUSING SUBDUED WINDS BECOMING
EVEN WLY AT TIMES.  ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N-18N E OF 68W WITH
MOST OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN E OF PUERTO RICO.  ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND MOST OF THE
E CARIBBEAN WITH THE STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH.

SUBTROPICAL ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC...
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE MID-LATITUDE ATLC WITH UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE
AREA NEAR BERMUDA SSW INTO HISPANIOLA.  GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE PRESENT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EXCEPT WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE UNSTABLE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N.  SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS W OF 50W N OF 22N.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH RUNS FROM 32N40W TO NEAR GUADELOUPE WITH A BIT DRIER AIR
FILTERING EVEN AS FAR S AS PUERTO RICO.  PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC IS CONCENTRATED
AROUND THAT TROUGH WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS FROM 17N61W 24N47W
31N38W.  THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS QUIET EXCEPT FOR W OF 58W NEAR A
TROPICAL WAVE... OTHERWISE A MID/UPPER HIGH HIGH NEAR 19N50W HAS
A SKINNY AXIS NE TO 32N28W.  FARTHER E... MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM
20N29W TO 6N38W CONTINUES WESTWARD SPARKING A LARGE AREA OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR AND N OF THE ITCZ FROM
5N-13N BETWEEN 20W-30W.  UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY A
BIT IN THE E ATLC WHILE BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN THE W ATLC.

$$
BLAKE

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