[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON 25 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 58W S OF 15N
MOVING W 10 KT. INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE WITH A MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION ARE CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS
BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS KEEPING THE
CONVECTION TO THE W OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE 9N59W-12N61W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 8N38W 10N55W 12N70W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST. AXIS IN THE E
TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE WHICH IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 1N-12N
BETWEEN 22W-35W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF 5N FROM 16W-20. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE
10N54W-12N60W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
24N89W WITH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OVER THE E UNITED
STATES WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE GULF N OF 20N W OF
80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE W IS BRINGING PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS N MEXICO AND TEXAS INTO THE SE UNITED STATES AND
THE EXTREME N GULF WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND S
MISSISSIPPI AND COULD APPROACH THE N GULF LATER TODAY. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER S MEXICO AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING N OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO 20N90W. SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO.

W ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 20N FROM
50W-80W. THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW 300 NM
ENE OF BERMUDA S THROUGH 32N57W ALONG 27N60W THEN SW TO 20N70W.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N48W TO
30N50W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 25N55W TO 20N68W. SURFACE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N42W SW ALONG 25N48W INTO THE
NE CARIBBEAN TO 16N68W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
17N64W IN THE NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG
23N52W TO BEYOND 32N45W IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N74W SE TO 27N71W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/
DRY AIR ARE S OF 30N W OF THE COLD FRONT AND N OF 30N FROM 70W
TO THE US COAST COURTESY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OVERCAST COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 30N W OF 70W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ABOUT 450 NM ENE OF GUADELOUPE
NEAR 18N54W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA
NEAR 14N84W E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO THE ISLANDS NEAR 15N61W
THEN NE THROUGH THE HIGH TO BEYOND 32N38W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
S OF 20N W OF 60W...COVERING THE W TROPICAL ATLC W OF 40W...AND
THE CENTRAL ATLC WITHIN 350 NM OF THE AXIS.

E ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING SW FROM 32N10W OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE AZORES NEAR 18N25W TO THE BASE NEAR 9N32W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ARE FROM 12N-27N BETWEEN 25W-37W. THIS IS
PREVENTING ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION OVER THE NE ATLC. MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS INLAND OVER AFRICA S OF 25N E OF 18W NARROWING
THE TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING
THE CONVECTION OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net