[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN 24 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
989 MB EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS NEAR 24.5N63W MOVING E 15-20 KT.
THIS LOW HAS SOME CONVECTION NEAR IT AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IF IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW.  ISOLATED WEAK
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  WAVE
HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120
NM OF 11.5N58.5W.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 93W/94W IS S OF THE AREA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N15W 8N36W 10N62W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 20W-35W.  ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
9N-11N BETWEEN 21W-33W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 5N16W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WARM WEATHER IS THE RULE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS COLD FRONT
HAVE BEEN SCARCE DUE TO A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED
FROM W-E OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W.  DRIER AIR HAS
SLOWLY BEEN FILTERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR
27N88W WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE SUNSHINE
STATE.  NLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING DOWN MODIFIED
CONTINENTAL AIR BUT NO TRUE FRONTS ARE ON THE HORIZON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS PRESENT.
MID/UPPER RIDGING HAS BUILT IN ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THANKS TO A GROWING RIDGE FROM 15N62W INTO HONDURAS.
SPOTTY SHOWERS AROUND IN THE CARIBBEAN BUT THE MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY SEEN LATE LAST WEEK IS MISSING DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER
DYNAMICS.  LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHS REMAINS FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO JUST E OF COSTA RICA.  ISOLATED TSTMS ARE PRESENT
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH W OF 68W WITH A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY BETWEEN 14.5N-18.5N FROM 61W-66W.
SOMEWHAT RARE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY IN THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
SHOWERS ACTUALLY MOVING FROM W TO E.  WEAK TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD
ENTER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
RAIN ESPECIALLY S OF BARBADOS.

SUBTROPICAL ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC...
COMPLEX LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS IN THE MID-LATITUDE ATLC
TROUGHING INTO THE AREA NEAR 31N59W SW TO THE FAR SE BAHAMAS.
GENERALLY W TO WNW FLOW IS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH VERY DRY AIR
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS.  CONVECTION IS AT A MINIMUM WITH
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS W OF 55W N OF
22N.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT RUNS FROM 32N50W IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
TO THE TURKS/CAICOS ISLANDS THEN DISSIPATING OVER SE CUBA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM 20N-25N W OF 45W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N
BETWEEN 40W-44W NEAR A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.  RATHER QUIET
WEATHER IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A HIGH/UPPER HIGH NEAR
17N55W RIDGING NE TO 23N44W THEN 32N42W.  MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS
KEEPING EVEN THE ITCZ FAIRLY QUIET W OF 40W.  FARTHER E... A
MID/UPPER LOW HAS FORMED W OF THE CAPE VERDES AROUND 17N27W AND
IS CAUSING SOME ENHANCED HIGH CLOUDS/ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE
ISLANDS.  BROAD TROUGHING IS PRESENT FARTHER N IN THE
SUBTROPICAL E ATLC WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THE
AREA CONVECTION-FREE.

$$
BLAKE

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