[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241820
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 24 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE 55W/56W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N
TO 12N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W/94W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. NO DEEP AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N12W 7N30W 7N40W 10N54W 12N70W 11N79W 9N84W 11N90W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 12N BETWEEN 10W AND 42W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE UNITED STATES EAST
COAST...WITH ITS BASE APPEARING TO BE MOVING OFFSHORE NOW...
JUST EAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER.
RIDGE FROM SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTH
FLORIDA NEAR 31N84W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N89W...TO
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N96W. WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 20N64W
18N70W 16N80W 16N83W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THIS
AREA OF DRY AIR IS EASTERLY FROM JAMAICA TO MEXICO...RELATED TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL FLOW FROM 80W TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
WESTERLY...RELATED TO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH
IS MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W
AND 80W...TOWARD THE ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER 34N63W 22N70W TROUGH.
THERE IS SOME OVERLAP OF THE TWO DIFFERENT WIND REGIMES IN THAT
PART OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE TROUGH FROM
15N75W TO 12N80W TO COSTA RICA NEAR 9N84W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTH
AMERICA NORTHWARD TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...EVENTUALLY JOINING
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE 34N63W
22N70W DEEP LAYER TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 25 TO 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 13N68W 16N66W 18N63W BEYOND 20N60W.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER 34N63W 22N70W TROUGH. DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 34N63W
TO 27N60W TO 24N63W 22N70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF 30N53W 23N60W 19N66W. SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH
32N49W TO 26N55W 23N60W AND INTO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N69W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 22N
BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W. SOME AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARE IN THE RIDGE...WHICH
IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CAROLINA TROUGH...NORTH OF 30N WEST
OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 47W...EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN
34W AND THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN NORTHERN AFRICA...TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS...TO A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
ABOUT 200 NM WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 10N32W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE TROUGH FROM 10N TO 28N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 35W. SURFACE RIDGE FROM 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 25N29W TO 16N42W TO 11N49W.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THE NORTHERN
AFRICA-TO CANARY ISLANDS-TO 10N32W TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 34W AND THE EAST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
MT

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