[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN 24 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 54W S OF
16N MOVING W 10 KT. INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS CLEARLY
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS UNDER RELATIVELY STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 55.5W FROM 8N-12N.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 7N16W 7N40W 13N65W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 6N40W 9N25W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
13N16W AND WITHIN 90/120 NM OF 4.5N FROM 10W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES N OF 33N WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AS FAR SOUTH AS N TEXAS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ARE N OF 32N W OF 85W ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED IN THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N88W WITH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO NE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND
32N78W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS ALL OF THE GULF INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA W OF 78W AND THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY EXCEPT
ISOLATED LOW SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE CONVERGENT FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW/HIGH IS BRINGING PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO SE
TEXAS INTO THE EXTREME N GULF WHICH COULD GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE N GULF LATER TODAY.

W ATLANTIC AND W CARIBBEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS S INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS JUST
E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W S TO 25N66W THEN SW ACROSS THE S
BAHAMAS NEAR 21N75W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 26N FROM 53W-75W AND
WITHIN 200/225 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION WELL E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N54W SW ALONG
25N60W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA ALONG 88W S OF 20N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY
AIR COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO
THE W ATLC S OF 30N W OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO ONLY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOTING THE
REGION.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND E CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ABOUT 425 NM ENE OF GUADELOUPE NEAR
17N55W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OFF THE COAST OF COSTA
RICA NEAR 12N82W ENE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE HIGH THEN
NE TO BEYOND 32N38W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 275/300 NM OF
THE AXIS S OF 22N THEN BROADENS COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 35W-53W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 16N75W SW TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR
9N81W AND IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
30N49W ALONG 26N49W TO 21N53W. WITH PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150/180 NM OF LINE FROM 20N50W TO 30N43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF A LINE
FROM 19N61W TO 24N57W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM
20N-25N BETWEEN 50W-56W AND IN THE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 66W-73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 15N68W-17N64W.

E ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING SW FROM 32N13W JUST E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO AN
UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 27N14W OVER THE
AZORES TO NEAR 11N31W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ARE WITHIN 200
NM OF LINE FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N17W TO 19N31W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 10N.

$$
WALLACE



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