[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN 24 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING HE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 53W S OF
16N MOVING W 5-10 KT. INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS CLEARLY
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS UNDER RELATIVELY STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 7N30W 10N52W 12N63W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
GUINEA BISSAU FROM 10N-12N E OF 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE 11.5N17W-10N22W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 15W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AS FAR SOUTH AS N TEXAS. THIS FLOW IS
BRINGING PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND E TEXAS INTO THE
EXTREME NW GULF WHICH COULD GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NW GULF LATER TODAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W WITH A BROAD RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO NE ACROSS OVER THE E
UNITED STATES TO BEYOND 3284W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS ALL OF
THE GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SE UNITED STATES...
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WITH THIS FLOW...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXCEPT ISOLATED LOW SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TODAY.

W ATLANTIC AND W CARIBBEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS S INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS
THROUGH BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W S TO 26N68W THEN SW OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N77W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 400/425 NM OF THE
AXIS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ABOUT 500 NM E OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N55W SW ALONG 25N62W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
18N71W. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA ALONG 16N85W
TO CUBA NEAR 20N78W. THIS TROUGH WAS CUT OFF TODAY FROM THE
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR COVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF HAITI AND INTO THE W ATLC S OF 30N W OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ONLY ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS DOTING THE REGION.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND E CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ABOUT 525 NM ENE OF GUADELOUPE NEAR
18N53W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W ENE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE HIGH
THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N39W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 250/300 NM
OF THE AXIS S OF 22N THEN BROADENS COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 36W-60W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
16N74W SW TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N82W AND A WEAK 1006 MB
LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N58W. WITH PLENTY OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 21N52W TO 30N43W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN
52W-63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 66W-70W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER LAKE MARACAIBO.

E ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING SW FROM 33N12W OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO AN UPPER LOW
ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 27N15W OVER THE AZORES TO
NEAR 13N29W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ARE WITHIN 225 NM NW OF
THE AXIS N OF 26N AND WITHIN 375 NM NW OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
AXIS.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 10N.

$$
WALLACE


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