[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT 23 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 50W S OF 16N MOVING
W AT 10 KT. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH IS GREATLY ENHANCING THE AREA CONVECTION.
SEE W CARIBBEAN BELOW FOR CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS NO LONGER IN THE ATLC
BASIN.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N10W 12N17W 8N20W 7N36W 10N48W
9N55W 10N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA FROM 7N-11N E OF 16W. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 20W-40W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 10W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
23N98W WITH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NNE ACROSS THE GULF TO
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS ALL OF THE
GULF...MEXICO W OF 101W...SE UNITED STATES...AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA. WITH THIS FLOW...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST
OF THE GULF TODAY WITH THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NW GULF LATER TODAY.

W ATLANTIC AND W CARIBBEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS S THROUGH THE W ATLC INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS THROUGH 32N69W ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W TO A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AT
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER NEAR 15N85W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS
WITHIN 350/400 NM OF THE AXIS IN THE ATLC THEN NARROWS TO WITHIN
150 NM ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N62W SW ALONG 25N70W ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS OVER CUBA TO NEAR 22N85W THEN DISSIPATES NW TO
OFF THE N GULF COAST NEAR 28N89W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS W
OF THE FRONT COVERING THE ATLC W OF 68W AND THE CARIBBEAN W OF A
LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 12N85W.
DUE TO THE DRY AIR ONLY ISOLATED LOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND E CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ABOUT 300 NM E OF GUADELOUPE NEAR 16N56W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO 25N50W THEN N TO BEYOND 32N47W
AND SW TO THE COAST OF W VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS WITHIN 350/400 NM OF THE AXIS S OF 24N THEN BROADENS
COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30W-63W. AT THE SURFACE...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N52W THROUGH
A WEAK 1008 MB LOW NEAR 25N55W ALONG 24N63W ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 16N71W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-77W IS
ADVECTING PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE
CARIBBEAN...IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 65W-68W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN 150/180 NM OF LINE FROM
20N54W SW ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W TO
NEAR 10N82W.

E ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING SW THROUGH 32N10W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 25N18W TO OVER THE AZORES NEAR 17N25W. AN INDUCED
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED NW OF THE LOW NEAR 28N23W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS WITHIN 325 NM OF LINE FROM 21N29W TO
32N18W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS
THE REGION.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF SW AFRICA NEAR 6N15W WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW S OF 11N FROM 9W-20W. AN EAST/WEST RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 6N22W TO A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR
6N37W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW S OF 11N. OVER THE W TROPICAL
ATLC...A WEAK TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 50W FROM 3N-13N. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE AREA. THE
DIVERGENT FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 45W-52W AND SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE
4N41W-7N45W.

$$
WALLACE



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