[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI 22 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 16N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 38W-47W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 85W/86W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA
RICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 83W-85W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N10W 9N20W 7N35W 15N50W 12N70W
11N80W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
16W-19W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 25W-29W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
68W-70W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WARM WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN GULF STATES WHILE SLIGHTLY
COOLER/DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE EASTERN GULF.  THESE
MILDER CONDITIONS ARE BEING BROUGHT DOWN BY A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS THROUGH S MISSISSIPPI INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS .  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS SITTING OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 22N98W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE GULF.  A NEW COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF ON SUN THOUGH IT IS
EXPECTED TO HANG UP IN THE NW GULF AND MAKE A DEEPER PUSH THRU
THE E GULF IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE.  THE FRONT SHOULD INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES FOR LATE TOMORROW ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO SAT NIGHT W
OF FLORIDA.

SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 50W AND CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA AT 18N68W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ENE TO 22N60W 22N50W.  A TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS SW
FROM THE LOW TO COSTA RICA ALONG 14N75W 11N84W.  THIS LOW DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ANY POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH
STRONG SHEAR PRESENT... HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO PUERTO
RICO WITH A GREATER-THAN-AVERAGE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. FARTHER S IN THE CARIBBEAN... ANOTHER WEAK LOW MAY BE
FORMING OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N79W.  OBSERVATIONS ALONG NW
COLOMBIA SHOW S TO SW WINDS... WHICH ARE BASICALLY A TOTAL
REVERSAL OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.  IN ANY EVENT THIS AREA
IS EXPERIENCING STRONG SHEAR AS WELL BUT IT FORECAST TO LET UP
SOME BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH FROM ABOUT 32N70W SSW THRU THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS... E CUBA AND JAMAICA INTO NICARAGUA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR INTO THE TROPICS.  VERY DRY AIR AT THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS IS KEEPING ANY CONVECTION QUITE SHALLOW AND
MOSTLY OVER LAND IN A DIURNAL HEATING FASHION.  AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH... UNSETTLED WEATHER IN LIFT/DIVERGENCE IS OCCURRING OVER
THE W ATLC WITH ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 60W-70W.

SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF 50W AND TROPICAL ATLC...
1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N33W.  HIGH PRESSURE
IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 15W-50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE
RIDGE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS DOMINATES THIS AREA BETWEEN
35W-75W WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CLOSE TO BARBADOS AND
RIDGE AXIS FROM ALONG THE NORTHERN VENEZUELAN COAST TO 20N50W
THEN N TO 32N48W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND
E OF 35W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR
10N5W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N E OF 15W.

$$
FORMOSA


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