[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220624
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI 22 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ENCOUNTERING MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY SHEAR AS IT MOVES UNDER A RIDGE. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 13N65W 16N62W 17N60W 18N58W MAY BE DUE MORE TO THE FACT
THAT IT IS OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW RATHER THAN BECAUSE OF THE WAVE. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE SET TO CUT ACROSS THE WAVE AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS
THE WAVE. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL AREAS FROM 8N82W NEAR PANAMA TO 13N90W
JUST SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA ARE RELATED TO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 13N16W 7N26W 10N50W 10N55W...FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W...AND 9N83W 11N86W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 8N EAST OF 40W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN 47W AND 53W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS
IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A CENTER NEAR 23N97W
IN NORTHEAST COASTAL MEXICO ABOUT 150 NM SOUTH OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW STRETCHES FROM MISSOURI
TO SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
AND 110W. THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN AMPLIFYING A GOOD DEAL DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR FROM 14N TO
30N BETWEEN 80W AND 103W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...BUT AT THE SAME TIME ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC-TO-WESTERN NICARAGUA MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THIS SAME
TROUGH...FORTIFYING IT AND CARRYING WITH IT A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 27N80W TO 31N87W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...OVER
FLORIDA...AND IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXISTS WITHIN 70 TO 100 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS
COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IN MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF 14N
WEST OF 80W...SWITCHING TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS
EVERYTHING MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.
ALL THIS IS RELATED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
34N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...
TO 13N86W IN WESTERN NICARAGUA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
34N69W TO 31N75W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 23N77W...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N80W...TO WESTERN
NICARAGUA NEAR 13N86W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MOVES SMOOTHLY AND GENTLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NORTH OF 20N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A SEPARATE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W AND 67W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES PREVAIL TOWARD
AFRICA.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 67W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE REST OF THE
AREA SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W IN STILL ANOTHER SEPARATE
AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

$$
MT






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