[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED 20 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 43W/44W
MOVING W 5-10 KT. THIS WAVE IS UNDER AN AREA OF CONFLUENCE
BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW TO THE W AND AN UPPER HIGH TO THE E. NO
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 74W S OF 20N MOVING W
5-10 KT. WAVE IS MOVING BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
LIMITING ANY CONVECTION EXCEPT WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WHERE SHOWERS ARE FROM 72W-75W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N13W 8N26W 12N48W 10N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
19W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E ACROSS THE GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN W OF
83W. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 28N83W NE OVER THE N W ATLC BEYOND
32N76W. THE UPPER HIGH IS BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR TO
THE AREA S OF 25N W OF 83W INCLUDING MEXICO...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND HONDURAS. SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING SE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM SE ALABAMA BUT ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG GULF COAST E OF 85W.

W ATLANTIC AND REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF A LINE FROM 32N49W 22N62W TO 74W AND
BOUNDED TO THE W AT 83W. A SHORTWAVE AXIS EXTENDS 32N68W SW TO
CUBA NEAR 21N77W AND A SECOND SHORTWAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N53W
TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR 22N63W. AN AREA OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION N OF 25N W OF 78W W OF 78W TO INLAND OVER THE
THE SE UNITED STATES COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS
BUILT IN OVER THE W ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NE OF BARBUDA THROUGH 32N67W TO FLORIDA NEAR
25N80W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE E
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N68W NE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
20N62W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PROVIDING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REGION S OF 18N AND THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 60W.
CONVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND TROUGH ARE
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
CUBA AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 17N81W TO 11N83W.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BOUNDED BY THE
TROUGH TO THE W AND A TROUGH TO THE E PRODUCING ALMOST ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW FROM 32W-55W. WEAK DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE
NE ATLC N OF 22N E OF 35W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS N OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N27W
SW TO 25N34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NW OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 29N190W-32N17W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
NEAR STATIONARY...CUTOFF MID/UPPER LOW IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS
CENTERED NEAR 11N56W COVERING THE AREA FROM 5N-16N BETWEEN
50W-60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF A
LINE FROM 12N58W TO 18N50W. REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 11N34W AND COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS. AN AREA OF UPPER CONVERGENCE WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN
31W-43W AND FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 45W-50W.

$$
WALLACE


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