[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191808
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE 19 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 19/1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOVING WEST 5 KNOTS. IT IS STILL
TO THE EAST OF THE 13N54W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
5N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 46W.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALONG 71W/72W PASSING
OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N14W 9N30W 11N40W 12N44W 11N60W 12N70W 11N83W 11N86W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN GUINEA FROM 10N TO 11.5N
BETWEEN 12W AND 14W...AND OVER THE WATER FROM 9.5N TO 11N
BETWEEN 21W AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 17W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 80W...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO...THE GULF
OF MEXICO...MOST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF 70W...AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 77W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE REST OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW S OF 16N WEST OF 80W
AND NEARLY EVERYWHERE ELSE TO THE EAST...EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...SOME OF IT FROM THE PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 13N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM JUST EAST OF
BERMUDA TO THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA...CLOSE TO WHERE IT WAS TWENTY
FOUR HOURS AGO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITHIN 120 TO
180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N58W 27N66W 20N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N70W 26N60W
BEYOND 32N50W. DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THROUGH 20N30W TO 27N24W BEYOND 32N24W.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RIDGE 12N46W 14N30W BEYOND 20N19W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 13N54W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 46W.

$$
MT




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