[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON 18 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHICH WAS ALONG 70W SIX
HOURS AGO HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED TO BE ALONG 67W/68W BASED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11.5N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 63W AND 72W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 13N16W 8N30W 9N50W 11N66W 11N70W 11N86W. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2N TO 12N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEING MOVED TO THE
NORTH WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 13N55W...FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW GOES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS...AND THEN DUE EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM
18/1500 UTC SHOW PRETTY MUCH WESTERLY FLOW...WHILE THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT HINT OF THE BASE OF A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA JUST
NORTH OF 30N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REST OF
THE GULF WATERS. WHATEVER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SITUATION MAY BE
EXACTLY...EVERYTHING MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS FLORID INTO A WESTERN
ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM BERMUDA/JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TO
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH 32N57W
TO 29N60W TO 24N70W. STATIONARY FRONT 24N70W TO NORTHWESTERN
CUBA COAST NEAR 23N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN
45 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N80W 25N70W 27N65W 29N60W BEYOND
32N56W. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT. 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 32N76W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE REST OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS PRACTICALLY
ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF
THE DEEP LAYER NEAR-BERMUDA-TO-BAHAMAS-TO-CUBA TROUGH. THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER HAS MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR FROM
8N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W...MIXED IN WITH SOME OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE INDUCED SHOWERS. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
ITCZ RELATED REMNANT SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 16N WEST OF 74W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS JUST WEST OF JAMAICA AND SOME HUGGING
THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE
BELIZE COAST.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BEING MOVED TO THE NORTH WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 13N55W...FROM 9N TO 16N
BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. TROUGH THROUGH 34N35W TO 26N37W TO 20N46W...
TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
13N55W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WITHIN 400 NM TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS TROUGH.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RIDGE 9N43W 13N33W 24N19W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEING MOVED TO THE NORTH
WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 13N55W...FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W.

$$
MT


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