[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON 18 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 70W S OF 22N MOVING W
5-10 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A MID/UPPER HIGH WHICH IS AIDING IN THE
INCREASE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE E OF THE WAVE DOTTING
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 13N10W 8N31W 10N47W 9N57W 11N67W. LARGE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 10W-23W AND FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 27W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING ALL OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PUSH E
OVER THE GULF W OF 89W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING OFF
THE NE UNITED STATES COAST OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N69W SW THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N87W. AT THE SURFACE...A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N58W SW ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA TO 21N82W. DIVERGENCE TO THE SE OF
THE FRONT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 28N62W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE COAST
OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT REMAINS OVER THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN
GIVING THE ENTIRE AREA TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES. A
SECOND DEEP LAYERED LOW IS MOVING E OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE N GULF WITH NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND REMAINDER OF THE W ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED S OF HAITI NEAR 15N75W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 30N58W THROUGH THE UPPER
HIGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEYOND 13N82W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
RELATIVE DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO
THE W TROPICAL ATLC. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
OF LINE FROM 13N77W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM
13N78W TO JUST INLAND OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W AND S OF 17N W
OF 84W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. BROAD
MID LEVEL LOW IS ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 22N60W. THIS IS PRODUCING
NO SHOWER ACTIVITY.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N37W THROUGH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N38W SW ALONG 22N46W TO A
SECOND MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N55W.
THE SECOND LOW IS BECOMING CUT OFF AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AND THE
NORTHERN LOW IS MOVING EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE E ATLC FROM A LOW E OF THE AZORES JUST E OF MADEIRA
ISLANDS THROUGH TO 28N19W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 24N30W AND A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SECOND LOW S OF THE AZORES THROUGH
32N35W TO 29N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N
FROM 21W-36W MOVING NE. IN THE TROPICS...OVERCAST SKIES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 37W-55W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
LOCATED IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N34W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING N TO 20N32W THEN NE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
BEYOND 32N12W. TO THE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
BEING ADVECTED N OVER THE AREA AND TO THE E...STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N-20N E OF 28W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE



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