[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON 18 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 19N MOVING
W 10 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A MID/UPPER HIGH WHICH IS AIDING IN THE
INCREASE IN SHOWERS TO THE E OF THE WAVE DOTTING THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 70W TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N13W 6N25W 10N54W 10N63W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 10W-40W INCLUDING
THE COASTAL AREAS OF LIBERIA TO GUINEA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING MOST OF MEXICO INTO THE W GULF W OF
93W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERED THE E UNITED STATES
LAST NIGHT IS NOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N77W SW ACROSS
FLORIDA TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N58W
SW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ACROSS CUBA
INTO THE S GULF NEAR 23N87W. DIVERGENCE TO THE SE OF THE FRONT
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60/75 NM OF THE FRONT E OF CUBA. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WAS IN PLACE LAST NIGHT REMAINS OVER THE
GULF GIVING THE ENTIRE AREA TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR
SKIES. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED LOW IS MOVING OVER THE UNITED
STATES MID SECTION BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NW GULF WITH NO
SHOWERS ACTIVITY.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND REMAINDER OF THE W ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N71W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 30N62W THROUGH THE
UPPER HIGH TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 12N82W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
RELATIVE DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO
THE W ATLANTIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W TO
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. BROAD MID LEVEL LOW IS ROUGHLY
CENTERED NEAR 23.58W. THIS IS PRODUCING NO SHOWER ACTIVITY.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 30N41W SW ALONG 23N47W TO A SECOND MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N55W. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC FROM A LOW NE OF THE AZORES OVER
MADEIRA ISLANDS THROUGH 30N23W TO 22N41W AND A SURFACE TROUGH
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SECOND LOW SW OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N35W
TO 24N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N FROM
26W-38W MOVING RAPIDLY NE. IN THE TROPICS...OVERCAST SKIES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 37W-55W. THE E ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED IN THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N33W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N14W. TO THE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS...TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED N OVER THE AREA AND TO THE E...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N-20N E OF 30W TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE


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