[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 17 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 68W S OF 18N MOVING W
10 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR WHICH IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. ISOLATED
LOW SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 63W-69W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 13N10W 9N30W 11N50W 12N68W 9N80W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 14W-18W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-11N BETWEEN 25W-42W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-3N BETWEEN 35W-39W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
79W-85W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW ATLANTIC...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC E OF BERMUDA THROUGH
32N62W EXTENDING SW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W ACROSS CUBA TO
23N80W 23N88W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA
NEAR 29N80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD TROUGH COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO...E UNITED STATES...AND THE NW ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN
70W-95W.  THIS FLOW IS USHERING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR
ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE THERE
IS A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND W ATLC W OF 50W...
EASTERLIES ARE USHERING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN N OF 13N.  CONVECTION IS ALSO ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ
NEAR PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... LARGE
MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N74W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE INTO THE SW ATLANTIC ALONG 26N61W TO
BEYOND 32N55W.  MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 71W-83W AND FROM 6N-21N BETWEEN
53W-71W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N39W SW TO
25N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN
40W-43W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N27W TO 22N46W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 35W-42W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N OF THE
REGION S INTO THE TROPICAL JUST N OF THE EQUATOR. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL AXIS EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 34N43W S TO A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N45W CONTINUING S TO OVER S AMERICA NEAR
6N60W. CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SUBTROPICS IS FROM 41W-52W THEN
NARROWS DRAMATICALLY IN THE TROPICS FROM 50W-57W.

E ATLANTIC...
1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 23N23W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS IN THE TROPICS ABOUT 700
NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 8N32W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING N ALONG 18N34W THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N24W. THIS FLOW IS
BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS FROM 10N-21N
BETWEEN 17W-34W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
FORMOSA



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net