[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160616
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT 16 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE 60W/61W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING OVER THE TOP OF
THIS WAVE. THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THROUGH WHICH
THIS WAVE JUST MOVED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS IS ABOUT 300 NM
EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W. NO DEEP
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE WAVE.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W/90W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE AREA NORTH OF 20N
EAST OF 90W IS PURELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTH
OF 10N IS FROM THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM 10N TO 20N
IS ANTICYCLONIC. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...OR IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE ITCZ AND/OR MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 14N16W 10N22W 10N40W 11N50W 11N60W 12N70W 9N80W 10N86W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
6N TO 8N BETWEEN 31W AND 33W...FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 17W AND
21W...FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN 38W AND 54W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS JUST EAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
TO FLORIDA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS SWEEPING
ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 27N80W 23N90W 20N97W. ALL THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
27N80W 20N97W LINE. COOLER AIR AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS BEEN MOVING AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREAS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT NOW THROUGH 32N75W 26N80W 23N84W 23N90W 22N93W 18N94W.
STATIONARY FRONT 18N94W NORTHWESTWARD IN MEXICO TO 23N101W.
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE OVER GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
TO BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTH OF
20N78W 19N88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
PERIMETER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO CUBA TO HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN MOST PLACES...
EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER.
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA HAS THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION
AND SOME FROM WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER IS COURTESY OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST OF
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO
FLORIDA COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN WESTERLY FLOW NORTHWEST OF
27N80W 30N73W BEYOND 32N71W. DEEP LAYER TROUGH THROUGH 32N46W TO
23N50W TO 17N54W TO 10N57W. SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N40W TO 23N44W 18N50W. STATIONARY FRONT
18N50W 17N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS FROM 25N BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 29W AND 37W. SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT FROM
20N76W TO 26N65W BEYOND 32N58W. RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
FROM 14N50W TO 19N42W TO 25N30W BEYOND 32N21W. ONE BROAD AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH IS
CONFINED TO THE AREA NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND THE TROUGH...
AND ANOTHER ONE IS SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND THE TROUGH IN
THE TROPICS. STILL ANOTHER SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
TROPICS HAS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF 20N IN
AFRICA EAST OF 20W.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net