[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI 15 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NOTED NEAR 10N59W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 48W-51W.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NOTED NEAR 16N87W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 86W-89W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N10W 8N30W 10N50W 12N73W 9N80W 10N85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 13W-16W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 25W-28W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
37W-50W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 76W-84W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALONG 30N81W 28N83W 21N96W 24N100W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 90W-94W.  A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS
TO W CUBA ALONG 29N79W 25N82W 22N86W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 75W-78W...AND
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE LINE 25N82W 22N86W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
SW TO W UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 60W DUE TO A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR
17N80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO...BASICALLY NW THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.  A BAND OF
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO W CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS MOVING E.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ITCZ SECTIONS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 17N80W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 70W-110W.
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT FOR THE PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA COASTS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N61W.  1010 MB
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N48W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N41W
TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 21N50W TO 17N56W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND 180 NM E OF THE FRONT.  SURFACE
RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 34N18W TO 27N23W 20N36W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S TO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 9N58W.  A RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 20N40W TO
32N34W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA
NEAR 30N20W.  A RIDGE AXIS IS OVER W AFRICA FROM 10N1W TO
10N15W.   WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 15N
BETWEEN 50W-20W.

$$
FORMOSA



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