[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151107
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI 15 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE 54W/55W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
WAVE IS MOVING UNDER A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT...NO DEEP THUNDERSTORMS.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W/84W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. WAVE MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. NO DEEP
THUNDERSTORMS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N14W 7N24W 8N40W 9N52W 9N56W 10N70W 10N82W 10N85W 11N90W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 20W AND 53W ON TOP
OF ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SHEARING SOME OF THE CLOUD
TOPS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 25W AND
30W...AND FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 48W...AND IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
78W AND 82W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF WESTERN
PANAMA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6.5N TO 8N BETWEEN 82W
AND 83W. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN PACIFIC
COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. ONE CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 6N13W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...DEEP
LAYER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
CENTRAL GULF TO COASTAL MEXICO ABOUT 150 NM SOUTH OF THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR OVER
INTERIOR MEXICO NORTH OF 20N...AND NORTH OF 27N80W 22N90W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 26.5N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN BELIZE TO
NORTHERN GUATEMALA...AND IN MEXICO FROM 17N TO 18.5N BETWEEN
91W AND 94W...SOUTHWEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND EASTWARD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR A 12N103W CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY GULF OF MEXICO FLOW LEADS TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR IN MOST PLACES. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 76W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 17N73W 15N60W TO PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA...ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE
32N50W 15N58W DEEP LAYER TROUGH.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 32N50W TO 23N53W TO 15N58W. SURFACE COLD
FRONT FROM 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N48W TO 26N45W
21N50W AND 19N56W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND
THE 36N36W 24N25W 16N37W TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS EAST OF THE 32N49W 18N58W COLD FRONT AND UNDER THE
RIDGE...WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N52W 23N46W...AND FROM
22N TO 32N BETWEEN 29W AND 50W. DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 36N36W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
31N24W TO 24N25W 19N32W AND 16N37W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 30N TO 33N
BETWEEN 22W AND 25W. 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
36N37W. ANY FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS WHICH WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW CENTER HAVE DISSIPATED.

TROPICAL ATLC...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF 16N/17N...TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL DEEP LAYER
TROUGHS AND THE RIDGE IN BETWEEN THEM.

$$
MT



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