[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150614
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI 15 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE 52W/53W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
WAVE IS JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT...NO DEEP THUNDERSTORMS.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WAVE MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF
BROAD UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR.
NO DEEP THUNDERSTORMS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N15W 8N20W 7N30W 8N40W 8N50W 8N55W 10N64W 12N72W
11N80W 11N83W 11N86W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ON TOP OF ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SHEARING SOME OF
THE CLOUD TOPS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 25W AND
30W...AND FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 10N
BETWEEN AFRICAN AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES...SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR OVER INTERIOR MEXICO NORTH OF 20N.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NORTHWARD ABOUT 250 NM IN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY GULF OF MEXICO FLOW
LEADS TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN RIDGE...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR IN MOST PLACES. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF 16N84W 13N75W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 17N73W 16N65W TO PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 32N50W 15N58W DEEP
LAYER TROUGH.

SUBTROPICAL ATLC...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 32N50W TO 23N53W TO 15N58W. SURFACE COLD
FRONT FROM 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N49W TO 27N47W
23N50W AND 18N58W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND
THE 36N37W 24N25W 16N37W TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS EAST OF THE 32N49W 18N58W COLD FRONT AND UNDER THE
RIDGE...WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N56W 22N45W...AND FROM
22N TO 32N BETWEEN 29W AND 50W. DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 36N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
30N24W TO 24N25W 19N32W AND 16N37W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 30N TO 33N
BETWEEN 22W AND 25W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM 28N TO 35N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. 1008 MB SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N35W. ANY FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS WHICH
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CENTER HAVE DISSIPATED.

TROPICAL ATLC...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF 16N/17N...TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL DEEP LAYER
TROUGHS AND THE RIDGE IN BETWEEN THEM.

$$
MT


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