[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU 14 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE 575 NM E OF BARBADOS IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 19N
MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE AXIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF SAHARAN DUST.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 80W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15 KT. INVERTED V SIGNATURE IS WELL DEFINED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
12N-20N BETWEEN 81W-86W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS ALONG 12N10W 8N22W 8N44W 11N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE COAST WITHIN 60 NM
FROM 6N-11N. BROAD AREA OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
250/300 NM OF LINE 3N23W-10N37W-9N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLANTIC...AND CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS ENTERING THE NW GULF N OF 28N W OF 86W
WITH THE DEEP LAYERED LOW MOVING INTO THE THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF
EXTENDING THROUGH E LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N91W 27N93W
TO INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 26N93W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR 30N87W.
WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ARE W OF THE FRONT.
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NEAR 17N85W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO S
OF 28N E OF 86W...W ATLC S OF 33N W OF 65W...AND THE CARIBBEAN N
OF 10N W OF 70W. JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT IS OVER
THE N PERIPHERY OF THE FLOW N OF A LINE FROM LOUISIANA 28N90W
30N81W TO 32N70W. PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS E CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ALONG 18N95W
24N80W TO 21N70W. A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N72W SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 24N78W WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS W CUBA TO 22N87W. THIS
COLD FRONT STEMS FROM A DEEP LAYERED LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND IS BEING DRAPED THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WHICH IS WEAKENING THE IMPACT FROM THE FRONT. SMALL BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE 27N71W-32N69W. WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC
BETWEEN THE ABOVE FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR 27N64W. DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA.

E CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC S INTO THE W
TROPICAL ATLC N OF 14N FROM 45W-65W. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N49W S ALONG 24N51W
TO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N59W. THE TROUGH IS BRINGING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS W OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE 20N51W TO 18N57W. INDUCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM 17N46W NE 26N41W THEN N TO 31N41W. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO THE W IS BEING DRAWN E ACROSS THE N PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE PRODUCING OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 175 NM OF
LINE 20N49W-27N84W-23N36W.

EAST ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N37W SE TO NEAR 26N26W. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N34W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 31N32W THEN WSW TO 27N38W. BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 2N36W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA S OF 13N FROM THE COAST OF
AFRICA TO 45W. ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION BETWEEN
THE TROUGH TO THE N AND THE UPPER HIGH TO THE S.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net