[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141720
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU 14 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING MOVING WEST 12 TO
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N TO 11N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W IN THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO
9N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO N
OF PANAMA WITHIN 30 NM OF 9N77W...AND OF 11N78W

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 15N1W 8N15W ...9N50W...11N70W AND 10N85W.
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED INLAND OVER LIBERIA FROM 5N TO 9N
BETWEEN 9W AND 11W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 25W AND 32W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 34W AND
39W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N TO 11N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30 NM OF 9N77W...AND OF 11N78W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...
COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM 32N92W TO 28N95W TO
27N101W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND 120 NM EAST OF FRONT.  A WEAK
1012 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N89W.
COLD FRONT IS OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTEND SOUTH TO THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA ALONG 32N72W 25N76W 22N85W.SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTEND 120 NM EAST OF FRONT NORTH OF 23N.  ...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...LARGE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR BELIZE AT 18N88W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 10N TO
28N BETWEEN 70W AND 110W.  A 80KT WESTERLY JET IS OVER THE N
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH FROM 92N100W TO 26N80W AND 24N70W.  A
PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO EASTERN
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ALONG 18N94W 23N84W AND 23N73W.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...
A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 27N64W.  COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N50W TO 26N50W AND 20N59W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND 400 NM EAST OF FRONT.  A 1007 MB LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR 33N33W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH TO 30N32W 26N39W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND 400 NM EAST OF TROUGH.  A SURFACE RIDGE
IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N17W 25N24W
22N30W.  ... IN THE UPPER LEVELS...  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
SOUTH TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 20N52W 12N60W.  A SMALL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 20N40W TO 32N44W.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N28W.  IN THE TROPICS ...
WESTERLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 20W.

$$
DEGRACE/FORMOSA



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