[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU 14 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE 44W/45W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING MOVING WEST 5 TO
10 KT. THIS IS A SLOWLY-MOVING WAVE WITH THE BACKGROUND FLOW
VERY WEAK DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W IN THE
ITCZ.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W IN COLOMBIA...
AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W ALONG THE COLOMBIA/
PANAMA BORDER...POSSIBLY ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N14W 7N23W 10N41W...10N46W 9N55W 10N64W...AND 10N70W
9N76W...9N78W 10N85W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO COSTA
RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 8N
BETWEEN 74W AND 76W IN COLOMBIA...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN
77W AND 78W ALONG THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER. WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W AROUND
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 8N
BETWEEN 22W AND 30W...AND FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF WATERS FROM
SIX HOURS AGO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN
JUST STRAIGHT WESTERLY. A BAND OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
CUTS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT CUTS THROUGH LOUISIANA TO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS AND BEYOND WEST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
AREAS OF RAIN...FROM THE OBSERVATIONS...COVER THE LAND AREAS
FROM THE FRONT EASTWARD. AN 1012 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
IN THE OPEN GULF NEAR 26N92W. MUCH OF THE NOW SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CROSSES FLORIDA AND MOVES TOWARD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...WITH A WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN RIDGE ALONG 75W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IMMEDIATELY TO
THE EAST OF THIS RIDGE...THROUGH 32N58W TO 25N59W...TO 21N60W.
ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TO 14N65W.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W...TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N76W...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
38W AND 55W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN REACHES TO
14N65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF
75W IS COVERED BY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE OPEN WATERS...JUST AWAY FROM THE LAND AREAS.

SUBTROPICAL ATLC...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 35N38W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A
SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 30N29W TO 20N39W...INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N65W. SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N51W TO 25N53W TO 20N62W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AREA
BOUNDED BY THE POINTS 24N30W 33N24W 36N35W 24N30W.

TROPICAL ATLC...
UPPER RIDGING IS BEING NUDGED SOUTHWARD BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM 30N50W TO 24N55W TO 22N62W. THERE ARE NO
TROPICAL WAVES IN THE VICINITY WHICH IS KEEPING THE FEATURE
MOSTLY DRY.  MID/UPPER RIDGING SITS ALONG 10N50W 13N20W WITH
SOME MID/UPPER SUBSIDENCE FROM 12N-16N E OF 40W.

$$
MT



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net