[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140624
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU 14 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE 40W/43W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING MOVING WEST 5 KT.
THIS IS A SLOW-MOVING WAVE WITH THE BACKGROUND FLOW VERY WEAK
DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W
IN THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION WITH
NO CLOUDS TO DEFINE IT.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N14W 7N20W 10N40W 10N43W 9N52W 10N61W...AND 10N76W 10N84W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO COSTA RICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N
TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 53W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPECIFICALLY FROM 6.5N TO 8N BETWEEN 33W AND 35.5W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N
TO 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W
AND 85W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EMERGING OFF THE
AFRICA COAST FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 14.5W AND 16W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF WATERS.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 65W. THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF...AND CONTINUES RIGHT ALONG
CUBA TO THE GREATER ANTILLES...BEFORE HEADING SOUTHWARD.
TROUGH FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 30N33W TO 15N50W TO 14N60W TO 14N65W. CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 65W.

SUBTROPICAL ATLC...
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N50W
TO 24N55W TO 22N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 25N
BETWEEN 45W AND 55W...AND FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO FROM 29N TO 33W AND BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. A SECOND COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE FROM THE UNITED STATES...NOW THROUGH
32N76W TO 27N76W TO 23N82W IN WESTERN CUBA. STATIONARY FRONT
FROM CUBA TO THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT
FOR ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W...ALONG THE
WESTERNMORE FRONT. TROUGH FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC
OCEAN CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 30N33W TO 15N50W TO 14N60W TO 14N65W.
SURFACE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N33W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 30N
TO 35N BETWEEN 24W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 32N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

TROPICAL ATLC...
UPPER RIDGING IS BEING NUDGED SOUTHWARD BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM 30N50W TO 24N55W TO 22N62W. THERE ARE NO
TROPICAL WAVES IN THE VICINITY WHICH IS KEEPING THE FEATURE
MOSTLY DRY.  MID/UPPER RIDGING SITS ALONG 10N50W 13N20W WITH
SOME MID/UPPER SUBSIDENCE FROM 12N-16N E OF 40W.

$$
MT


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