[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED 13 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 16N MOVING W 5-10 KT.
WELL DEFINED INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
5N-8N BETWEEN 37W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 18N
MOVING W 10 KT.  WEAK SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 13N10W 8N30W 8N50W 11N70W 10N85W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 17W-19W...FROM 7N-9N
BETWEEN 27W-32W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 27W-29W...AND FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 37W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 30N83W
25N85W 22N95W MOVING E.  SOME COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
EXTEND 180 NM BEHIND THE FRONT.  A 1013 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N95W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ...IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-94W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE GULF DUE TO AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 18N90W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/ DRY AIR IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 24N WHILE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 24N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 86W-88W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF NICARAGUA
FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 79W-82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...LARGE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 18N90W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 60W-110W.  MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE IS IS N OF 13N BETWEEN 60W-85W.

SUBTROPICAL ATLC...
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N79W 24N80W.  A
1014 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N69W.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N52W 28N56W 25N61W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-33N BETWEEN 50W-53W...
AND FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 54W-59W.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N48W 25N46W 20N49W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 44W-47W.
1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N32W.  LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-35W BETWEEN 20W-32W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIPS INTO THE W ATLANTIC N
OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-70W.  A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N48W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS S TO THE
TROPICS ALONG 25N47W 15N60W.  A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N29W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 20W-40W.

TROPICAL ATLC...
RIDGE EXTENDS OVER W AFRICA AND THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC ALONG
15N1W 10N30W 10N40W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE
RIDGE AXIS.

$$
FORMOSA




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