[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE 12 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG MEAN AXIS OF 39W S OF 14N MOVING W 12
KT. WAVE REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH A FAINT V-SHAPE SIGNATURE IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 66W S OF 20N MOVING W
12 KT. POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF PREVIOUS ANALYSES
AS SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA DO NOT REVEAL ANY SIGNATURE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 8N30W 7N45W 10N60W 13N73W
9N85W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W
AFRICA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 11W-14W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 18W-26W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 28W-34W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 56W-60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 74W-78W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...YUCATAN PENINSULA...FLORIDA...BAHAMAS...AND NW
CARIBBEAN...
COLD FRONT IS ALONG TEXAS COAST FROM 32N91W TO 29N95W 29N100W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.  1014 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N95W.  STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 30N86W TO 26N83W WEAKENING TO
20N92W...IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N93W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EAST TO
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-30N
BETWEEN 74W-110W.  A 70-90 KT JET IS OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER HIGH ALONG 24N106W 28N90W 28N74W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 100W TO 75W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 92W-94W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 25N79W.  LACK OF STRONG MID/UPPER
SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THE FRONT LATER TODAY AS A
STRONG TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY WED. DRY AIR WILL SPREAD E ACROSS
FLORIDA LATE TODAY...WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER
THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND WESTERN SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SEE
TROPICAL WAVE AND ITCZ SECTIONS ABOVE.  COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 32N54W TO 27N60W TO 25N74W.  SURFACE
TROUGH IS FROM 29N50W TO 25N49W TO 20N51W TO 16N58W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180NM EAST OF TROUGH
AXIS NORTH OF 18N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... LOW IS NORTH EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 28N51W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N60W 11N80W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS
WITHIN 180NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  A BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ALONG AND JUST S OF SHEAR AXIS FROM THE ITCZ AXIS
ALONG 11N IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE SHEAR
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...LEAVING THE HIGH AS THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND YUCATAN PENINSULA AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR THE SHEAR AXIS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
1003 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N32W.  COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA AT 32N21W AND EXTENDS SW TO 22N30W TO 22N40W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 18W-27W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NARROW RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WITH AXIS ALONG 28N51W 26N45W 16N46W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
WITHIN 180NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N30W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH
TO 20N30W TO 10N38W TO 6N50W.  UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER WEST
AFRICA NEAR 11N10W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 1N-20N EAST OF
25W.

$$
FORMOSA/DEGRACE



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