[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT75 KNHC 112030
SPFAT5
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE STORM CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  61.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT THU OCT 14 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

43.5N  61.5W      28  X  X  X 28   HALIFAX NS        15  2  1  X 18
45.0N  61.0W      14  3  1  X 18   SABLE ISLAND NS   21  1  1  X 23
48.0N  59.0W       X  6  5  X 11   SYDNEY NS          4  8  2  X 14
BAR HARBOR ME      1  3  1  X  5   EDDY POINT NS     11  4  1  X 16
EASTPORT ME        3  4  1  X  8   PTX BASQUES NFLD   X  8  3  X 11
ST JOHN NB         5  5  1  X 11   BURGEO NFLD        X  6  4  X 10
MONCTON NB         4  7  1  X 12   ILE ST PIERRE      X  5  5  X 10
YARMOUTH NS        7  3  1  X 11   CAPE RACE NFLD     X  1  5  X  6

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM TUE TO  2AM WED
C FROM  2AM WED TO  2PM WED
D FROM  2PM WED TO  2PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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