[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON 11 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE IS CENTERED NEAR 34.9N 63.6W...OR ABOUT
170 NM NNW OF BERMUDA...AT 11/0900 UTC MOVING NE AT 16 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC OR
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT25
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED BUT
A LARGER AREA OF ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS NE OF THE CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF
61.5W FROM 35N-39N.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 575 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ALONG 34W S OF 18N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE AXIS REMAINS AT THE
BASE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS PROVIDING SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS IS PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION FROM
FORMING AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED BETWEEN BARBADOS AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 20N59W TO 7N61W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS
NOT VERY WELL-DEFINED AS IT MOVES INTO THE BROAD TROUGH OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LEFT BEHIND BY SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE.
WAVE IS ALSO BENEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WHICH IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE
WAVE...THUS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 14N10W 8N26W 9N40W 7N53W 9N62W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-12N
BETWEEN 10W-40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 52W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N90W WITH A
BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC
TO BEYOND 32N73W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE E GULF AND THE W
ATLC W OF 70W. TO THE W...IS A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS
MOST OF W GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A 1004 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF
MATTHEW...IS CENTERED OVER N LOUISIANA NEAR 32N91W WITH AN
OCCLUDED SYSTEM WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE E GULF
TO 27N83W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 25N87W THEN SW
ALONG 22N91W THEN S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE MOVED
ACROSS THE W GULF BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE E OF THE FRONT WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN
ACROSS S MEXICO INTO THE E GULF AND THE W ATLC. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE E GULF E OF 86W AND
ARE MOVING OVER THE ENTIRE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN...
THE SAME STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND W ATLC
CROSSES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CONTINUES TO PUMP DRY AIR FROM THE W ATLC S WELL INTO THE SW
CARIBBEAN...CROSSING COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. THIS IS ALSO
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 21N W OF 81W. THIS IS ALSO DEVELOPING NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION OVER GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND NW HONDURAS INTO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17.5N W OF 87W. A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC EXTENDS S ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W-20N65W. THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO COVER COLOMBIA WITH SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION S OF 10N E OF 78W TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA.

REMAINDER OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
THE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
ATLC IS NARROWING AS THE RIDGE OVER THE FAR W ATLC CONTINUES TO
BUILD E. A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH SSE OF
BERMUDA NEAR 26N62W AND THIS WHOLE COMPLEX TROUGH IS PUMPING
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE N OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. COMBINED WITH AN
AREA OF SURFACE SPEED CONVERGENCE...THIS HAS LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TO THE SE OF SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE
INTO THE TROPICS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
N OF 24N FROM 47W-59W. FARTHER E...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS PUSHING S TO 24N FROM 25W-40W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N28W ALONG 27N34W TO 29N42W. A 1003 MB
GALE CENTER IS SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N31W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE FRONT. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75
NM OF LINE 16N33W-22N27W. WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS E OF THE TROUGH
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS
TO THE COAST OF NW AFRICA.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 17N53W AND CONTINUES TO REINFORCE THE BROAD
MOISTURE PLUME THAT EXTENDS FROM E VENEZUELA N ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC. THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE 20N53W-24N49W. THE HIGH IS BRINGING
DRIER AIR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 30W-50W...WHICH FEEDS INTO
A REMNANT MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS S TO 6N36W.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net