[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT75 KNHC 102042
SPFAT5
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE STORM CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  66.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT WED OCT 13 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

39.0N  65.0W      27  X  1  X 28   PORTLAND ME        X  7  3  X 10
41.0N  65.5W      11  8  1  X 20   BAR HARBOR ME      X  7  4  X 11
41.5N  66.0W       7 11  1  X 19   EASTPORT ME        X  6  4  X 10
BERMUDA           26  X  1  X 27   ST JOHN NB         X  4  4  X  8
NEW YORK CITY NY   X  1  2  X  3   MONCTON NB         X  2  3  X  5
MONTAUK POINT NY   1  4  3  X  8   YARMOUTH NS        X  9  3  X 12
PROVIDENCE RI      1  5  3  X  9   HALIFAX NS         X  4  3  X  7
NANTUCKET MA       2  8  2  X 12   SABLE ISLAND NS    X  1  2  X  3
HYANNIS MA         1  8  3  X 12   EDDY POINT NS      X  1  2  X  3
BOSTON MA          X  7  3  X 10

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
C FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
D FROM  2PM TUE TO  2PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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