[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 101453
TCDAT5
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF NICOLE.  HOWEVER THIS
CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER...SO THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION THAT THE CYCLONE IS
ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  A 10Z HIRES QUIKSCAT PASS
CONTAINED 40 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE OBSERVATIONS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NICOLE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 36
HOURS...THE GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED BY
A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IN AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS NICOLE WILL BE STEERED
PRIMARILY BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. SOME SLOWING IN THE FORWARD SPEED IS SHOWN IN 36 TO 48
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO COMBINE WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...CONU...AND IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/1500Z 32.2N  66.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 34.0N  66.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 36.6N  65.1W    50 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 39.5N  64.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 41.1N  64.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 44.0N  62.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     14/1200Z...ABSORBED


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