[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 100814
SPFAT4
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  91.1 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  1AM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

32.4N  90.9W      31  X  X  X 31   BURAS LA          64  X  X  X 64
34.4N  91.8W      11  6  2  X 19   NEW ORLEANS LA    69  X  X  X 69
35.7N  92.7W       2 11  2  X 15   NEW IBERIA LA     36  X  X  X 36
APALACHICOLA FL    X  1  1  X  2   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  1  1  X  2
PANAMA CITY FL     1  2  1  X  4   GULF 29N 85W       X  1  1  X  2
PENSACOLA FL       8  3  X  X 11   GULF 29N 87W       4  2  1  X  7
MOBILE AL         23  X  1  X 24   GULF 28N 89W      19  X  X  X 19
GULFPORT MS       40  X  X  X 40   GULF 28N 91W      99  X  X  X 99

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  1AM MON TO  1PM MON
C FROM  1PM MON TO  1AM TUE
D FROM  1AM TUE TO  1AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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