[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 100234
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004

STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR HAS AGAIN STRIPPED MATTHEW OF ITS DEEP
CONVECTION THIS EVENING.  NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE AMPLE SHIP
REPORTS TO SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...SO THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR NOW.  WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION
CURRENTLY SEPARATING FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER...IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR MATTHEW TO STRENGTHEN APPRECIABLY PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...AND IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN MATTHEW WILL PROBABLY
MAKE LANDFALL AS A DEPRESSION.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM MATTHEW
CONTINUES TO BE COASTAL SURGE AND INLAND RAIN FLOODING.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TODAY...WHILE THERE WAS
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE...MATTHEW TURNED EASTWARD IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPER LAYER WESTERLY STEERING FLOW.  NOW THAT MATTHEW IS ONLY
A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL THE EASTWARD MOTION HAS STOPPED...AND OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS MATTHEW HAS MOVED ESSENTIALLY NORTHWARD.
AS CONVECTION COMES AND GOES THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL JUMPS TO THE
LEFT AND STEPS TO THE RIGHT...BUT SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STRONG...THE MORE NORTHERLY MOTION SHOULD PREVAIL.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND UKMET GUIDANCE...
AND A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE EASTWARD JOG
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/0300Z 27.7N  91.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 29.0N  90.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 30.9N  90.4W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 33.3N  90.6W    20 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 35.5N  91.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED


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