[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 091432
SPFAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  92.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

30.0N  91.3W      37  1  X  X 38   NEW IBERIA LA     36  X  X  X 36
32.5N  91.0W       6 15  1  X 22   PORT ARTHUR TX    11  2  1  X 14
34.5N  91.0W       X 13  3  X 16   GALVESTON TX       3  1  1  X  5
PANAMA CITY FL     X  1  1  X  2   FREEPORT TX        X  1  1  X  2
PENSACOLA FL       1  5  2  X  8   GULF 29N 87W       1  3  1  X  5
MOBILE AL          4  9  2  X 15   GULF 28N 89W      18  1  X  X 19
GULFPORT MS       14  6  1  X 21   GULF 28N 91W      62  X  X  X 62
BURAS LA          27  1  X  X 28   GULF 28N 93W      59  X  X  X 59
NEW ORLEANS LA    32  X  1  X 33   GULF 28N 95W       1  X  1  X  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7AM SUN TO  7PM SUN
C FROM  7PM SUN TO  7AM MON
D FROM  7AM MON TO  7AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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