[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 090820
SPFAT4
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  92.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  1AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

28.1N  90.5W      47  X  X  X 47   NEW ORLEANS LA    18 12  X  X 30
30.6N  89.4W       6 20  X  X 26   NEW IBERIA LA     14 10  1  X 25
32.5N  89.0W       X 15  3  1 19   PORT ARTHUR TX     2  5  1  1  9
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  2  2   GALVESTON TX       1  3  1  1  6
CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X  2  2   FREEPORT TX        1  1  X  1  3
ST MARKS FL        X  1  2  2  5   GULF 29N 85W       X  2  2  2  6
APALACHICOLA FL    X  2  2  3  7   GULF 29N 87W       2 11  1  1 15
PANAMA CITY FL     X  4  3  3 10   GULF 28N 89W      30  1  X  X 31
PENSACOLA FL       1 13  2  1 17   GULF 28N 91W      51  X  X  X 51
MOBILE AL          2 19  1  X 22   GULF 28N 93W      38  X  X  X 38
GULFPORT MS        7 19  X  1 27   GULF 28N 95W       6  1  X  1  8
BURAS LA          25  7  X  X 32   GULF 27N 96W       1  X  1  X  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  1AM SUN TO  1PM SUN
C FROM  1PM SUN TO  1AM MON
D FROM  1AM MON TO  1AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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