[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061820
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED 06 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 62W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A MID/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 20N64W.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N10W 8N30W 8N50W 11N60W 10N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 19W-21W...AND FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 18W-21W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 26W-31W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 45W-56W

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS ALONG 28N81W 29N90W 27N97W 30N103W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
26N-29N BETWEEN 91W-96W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 23N96W TO 16N93W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 91W-96W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 19N88W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 12N-32N
BETWEEN 76W-100W.  WESTERLY FLOW WITH SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC
TURNING AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN...
DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS ON
THE E SIDE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING FROM PANAMA
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUING TO PRODUCE ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N64W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS S TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. SUBSIDENCE IS W OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...WHILE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N69W 29N75W 28N80W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  SURFACE TROUGH
IS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 28N53W 19N61W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-28N BETWEEN
52W-57W.  1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N46W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...E OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR
21N64W...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN
40W-55W.  LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN
10W-40W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PREVAILS FROM W AFRICA TO S AMERICA
ALONG 16N1W 10N20W 9N50W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF
THE RIDGE AXIS.

$$
FORMOSA




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