[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021813
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT 02 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE LISA IS CENTERED NEAR 42.0N 36.8W OR ABOUT 585 MILES
...945 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES AT 02/1500 UTC MOVING
ENE AT 26 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DESPITE BEING OVER VERY
COOL WATERS...LISA REMAINS IMPRESSIVE. ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION STILL SURROUNDS THE WELL DEFINED EYE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 40N-43N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15
KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 33W-36W.

MID ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 45W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 62W/63W S OF
20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 55W-62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ENHANCING CONVECTION.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN
78W-84W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 9N20W 11N37W 11N60W 11N85W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 25W-30W...AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 39W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR
21N102W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE GULF TO THE N
FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS HAS KEPT MOST OF THE
GULF SHOWER FREE. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
NW OF THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
16N86W...AND IS A PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCER TOGETHER WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W/86W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 78W-84W.  THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 62W/63W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 55W-62W.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N57W
28N64W.  A SURFACE TROUGH E FURTHER E ALONG 29N55W 22N61W..
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 51W-59W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OFF THE E U.S.
COAST EXTENDING FROM 34N70W TO NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. SMALL
INDUCED RIDGE IS FURTHER E FROM 32N65W TO 26N71W.  LARGE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N57W WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 12N-35N BETWEEN 48W-67W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 38N36W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF
25N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N23W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 23N BETWEEN
15W-30W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE PRIMARY SURFACE WEATHER PRODUCERS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE
TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 13N26W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO
11N40W 11N48W.  THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 25N57W IS PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 12N-35N BETWEEN
48W-67W.

$$
FORMOSA




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