[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 021432
TCDAT3
HURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 02 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT LISA HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-ORGANIZED
CLOUD PATTERN WITH AN EYE FEATURE AND AN ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT LISA IS STILL A 65-KNOT
HURRICANE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MOST RECENT IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.

LISA IS RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 60 DEGREES AT 26 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED
UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/1500Z 42.0N  36.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 44.0N  32.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 45.5N  23.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     04/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
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